America’s Gravest Foreign Threat—————————————-
A commentary
By J. F. Kelly, Jr.
The greatest current threat to America by a foreign power is not posed by China, Russia or Iran but by North Korea. Former President Barack Obama told President Donald Trump that North Korea was the most urgent and difficult foreign policy crisis he would face and he was right. The challenge is what to do about it.
The leaders of China and Russia are rational actors motivated by national and perhaps personal interests but not by hatred of Americans. Not so with North Korea’s dangerous and unpredictable dictator, Kim Jong Un, or the mullahs who rule Iran and daily chant “Death to America” which they regard as the great Satan. As the world’s leading sponsor of international terrorism, Iran will indeed remain a threat but not an immediate nuclear threat. This can no longer be said of North Korea. Not only have we run out of patience, as Mr. Trump has said, but we may be running out of time to resolve this threat peacefully. Mr. Kim does not behave as a rational actor and we cannot assume that he will not act impulsively. As I write this, North Korea has tested another ballistic missile, apparently of the type that could be used to target a U.S. warship in the region, this in spite of already-heightened tensions and Trump warnings that a U.S. military response is an option that remains on the table.
We have more than 28,00 troops, about the population of Coronado, stationed in South Korea and more than that in neighboring Japan along with ships of the U.S. Seventh Fleet home-ported in Japan, plus civilian dependents, employees and contractors. They could be in immediate danger in the event of a conflict which Trump warned is a very real possibility. Seoul, South Korea’s capital city with its population of more than 10 million, plus diplomats and other foreigners, is within artillery range from across the demilitarized zone. Adm. Harry Harris, Commander, U. S. Pacific Command reportedly warned, in a recent briefing of U.S senators, that he believes North Korea now has the ability to target Hawaii.
Over the years, Washington has tried repeated negotiations with Pyongyang. They haven’t worked. They have simply delayed a final reckoning and enabled North Korea to build a nuclear arsenal which they threaten to use to target U.S. ships and bases and perhaps cities. They have simply played past U.S. administrations for suckers. Pyongyang takes what concessions we give them, maintaining support from its long-suffering population at home and then totally ignoring its promises to cease building nuclear weapons and the means to deliver them. The United Nations, as usual, is of no help.
Mr. Trump has said our patience has run out and the time for negotiations is over. But his tough words appeared to be contradicted somewhat by his secretary of state, Rex Tillerson, who later said that we don’t seek regime change and are open to direct negotiations. But of course we seek regime change, or at least we should, because Kim will never give up negotiations as a result of pressure from us. He would lose face at home. Being a nuclear power and threatening America is his only key to power.
Even a conventional military conflict with North Korea would be bloody and needs to be avoided. The key to a solution lies with China, North Korea’s only ally and its main trading power. The art of the deal will not work with Kim Il Jong but it might with the rational Ji Jingping. Messrs. Trump and Tillerson need to negotiate a deal with Beijing to end this existential threat now and to avoid a bloody conflict that would that would benefit no one including China. China could resolve this crisis by choking off all aid and trade with North Korea unless Kim steps down and Pyongyang agrees to permanently stop all nuclear weapons development and submit to unrestricted inspections to ensure compliance.Our bargaining chips could be a continuation of our support of the one China policy and perhaps cutting them some slack on the sovereignty issues regarding their man-made islands in the South China Sea (but never on freedom of navigation rights). Let’s get a deal made, Mr. Trump.
May 13, 2017
Commentaries by J. F. Kelly, Jr. 