A commentary
By J. F. Kelly, Jr.
The Biden Administration is slowly awakening to the magnitude of the threat posed by the People’s Republic of China (PRC). The American public, however, is proving much more difficult to arouse. But then it usually has taken a rude awakening such as the attack on Pearl Harbor to stir the sleeping giant as Adm. Isoruku Yamamoto referred to America. Back then, before nuclear weapons and advanced technology changed the world, there was time to rise from our slumber and mobilize swiftly enough to deal with oppressors and prevail. We paid a heavy price in casualties, however, for our unpreparedness in WW II and Korea but America’s robust industrial base eventually rose rapidly to the challenge.
We no longer have the luxury of time to prepare or perhaps even the industrial capacity to ensure that we prevail. Modern military technology has changed the nature of warfare and the three-ocean buffer that separates us from our potential adversaries no longer insulates us. Our cities are now targets, especially those hosting major military/naval complexes like San Diego. The military/industrial complex that Dwight Eisenhower warned us about is now a threat only because of its diminished capacity. Many of the industries that manufactured the weapons and platforms of war have been exported overseas where it is produced for less.
Too many Americans, preoccupied by domestic problems, have yet to take the threat posed by China seriously enough and are inclined to view the relationship as more of a rivalry. It is far more than that; it is a battle for influence and ideals. China’s determination to surpass us as the world’s leading economy and military power will, if successful, have a negative effect on our ability to influence world affairs and perhaps change our very way of life. The PRC is ruled by the Communist Party of China which dictates its policies on nearly everything. President Xi Jinping is the Party Secretary and he has installed himself as president for life. He would be expected to export the values and principles of the Communist Party throughout the world and dictate the rules of trade. He will continue to militarize and colonize the South China Sea through which two-thirds of the world’s seaborne commerce transits daily, endangering freedom of navigation which is critical to our economy. He will eventually occupy Taiwan by force at a time of his choosing.
The chances are great that he will do this while President Joe Biden, whom he regards as weak and indecisive, is still in office. Meanwhile, Mr. Biden is beset and pre-occupied with problems including a southern border in chaos, growing inflation, a $31 trillion national debt, an epidemic of drug use and violence, a restive and divided population and an endless war in Ukraine with the U.S. paying most of the bill for Ukraine’s defense. Democrats and Republicans are divided over whether raising the debt limit should require spending cuts. The president’s FY 24 proposed budget includes $824 billion for defense which amounts to a cut in real spending, given the 5% inflation rate. It is simply too little, too late.
And speaking of too little, too late, the AUKUS agreement to provide our ally Australia with nuclear-powered submarine technology provides another example. U.S. nuclear-powered subs will be scheduled to deploy to Australia on a rotational basis starting in 2027. The U.S. will reportedly offer Australia three Virginia-class attack submarines starting in the early 2030s. But by 2030, my guess is that a war with China, if there is one, will likely be over.
Our defense budget calls for two attack subs (SSNs) per year and the navy would prefer three. But we have trouble completing one and a half a year while also building ballistic missile subs (SSBNs). According to a recent Wall Street Journal editorial, the maintenance backlog is such that in FY 21 the fleet lost 1500 days waiting for repairs.
The endless war in Ukraine is eating away at our supply of munitions and weapons and cannot go on indefinitely, much as Biden may promise support for as long as it takes. As predicted, Americans are losing patience with endless wars of limited objectives, even though there have been no American casualties. Not yet, anyway. America’s most serious threat by far still remains the PRC and we urgently need to devote more resources to deterring or winning a conflict with China.
Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida, the GOP’s most likely candidate to oppose Donald Trump for the presidential nomination, has referred to the war in Ukraine as a “territorial dispute”. He’s right. I have long felt that the U.S. doesn’t have a dog in this fight and that the European nations need to assume more of the burden of helping Ukraine defend its territory and broker negotiations to end this destructive war. We need to focus on the formidable task of deterring China from aggression by convincing Mr. Xi that they will never be able to displace the U.S. as the world’s largest economy and strongest military power. Americans, for their part, must decide whether they wish to spend what it takes on defense to continue enjoying the freedoms that this brings or become, by default, just another European-style welfare state in slow decline.
Europeans need to understand that while we will continue to honor our NATO commitments, we can no longer be expected to resolve every crisis in their own backyard. We have enough of our own.
March 26, 2023
Commentaries by J. F. Kelly, Jr. 