The End of the Two-Party System

                A commentary

                By J. F. Kelly, Jr.AC

                Americans are deeply divided politically and it is my humble opinion that it is largely the cultural wars that divides them. Racial minorities and gays have deservedly made tremendous gains during my lifetime but the liberal media, which is to say most of the media, act as if they are still fighting for those gains and trivialize their accomplishments. Much of the liberal media, moreover, devotes most of their coverage to cultural issues leaving the average reader underinformed regarding international affairs and the growing risk of conflict. The average American probably does not follow world news, read a daily newspaper beyond local news, sports and entertainment coverage coverage and probably couldn’t name a single cabinet member or find Ukraine or Taiwan on a globe or for that matter even find a globe.

                We are now just a little over fifteen months from, arguably, the most important election of our lifetimes, perhaps of all time. It will determine who will lead the world’s most powerful nation, largest economy and leader of the free world, at least for another four years, subject to the mortality risks of the candidates. It comes at a time when our world leadership is facing serious challenges.

                While a lot can happen in the next fifteen months, the distressing reality is that former president Donald Trump, who still claims to have won the 2020 election, is favored to be the Republic nominee to run against the man who actually did win it, incumbent president Joe Biden. Mr. Biden, at 80 years of age shows daily evidence of cognitive and physical decline. Mr. Trump is 77 and is the subject of criminal investigations. Both, as lame ducks, would be limited to only four more years in office and the political posturing for the 2028 elections would begin almost immediately. Mr. Biden’s age is of particular concern given the rigors of the office and the qualifications and underperformance of his Vice-president, Kamala Harris, who would, presumably, again be his running mate.

                Both Messrs. Biden and Trump are deeply-flawed candidates as they were when they first met. Their shortcomings have been previously discussed at length in this space and elsewhere. Americans deserve and should demand better than a choice between the lesser of two weevils—uh, evils (apologies to Patrick O’Brien). There are potential candidates for the nomination on both sides with the experience, temperament and energy necessary to do a better job during the challenging years ahead and they would have the advantage of being able to run for re-election. If we are to successfully deter China and Russia from further aggression by investing in our military infrastructure to the point where we can rapidly increase the size of our military, we will require more continuity of defense policy to avoid a radical change in direction and defense policy every four years.

                Unless the two major parties can present to American voters candidates who are better-qualified by temperament and experience, preferably experience as a governor and member of Congress, and who can be trusted to choose a running mate better qualified to succeed to the presidency if required than Ms. Harris, pressure will grow to expand the two-party system.      

                The arguments against a third (or more) parties are, of course, significant. A third- party candidate can cost a major party candidate enough votes to lose an election as was the case in 1992 when Ross Perot ran as an Independent. Also, the Constitution provides that a candidate for president must win a majority, at least 270, of the electoral votes to be elected. Otherwise, the voting goes to the House of Representatives. But Mr. Biden’s age and apparent cognitive and physical decline is of growing concern, not just to voters, but to party leaders. As Karl Rove writes recently in the Wall Street Journal, two key voting blocs, young people and blacks, are not enthused over a replay of the 2020 election and could be supportive of a third- party ticket such as former U.S Senator and Vice-presidential candidate Joe Lieberman’s “No Labels” party. He also believes it could attract “Never Trumpers” and Independents who would vote for neither Biden or Trump.

                Both prospective major party nominees seem more responsive to their respective parties’ extreme wings than to the moderate center where most Americans are more comfortable. Both ran as unifiers and failed to unify. Americans not only deserve better choices; they may demand them. It’s not too late to save the two-party system, but it won’t be saved by a replay of grumpy old men.

August 19, 2023

How to Lose a Democracy

                A commentary

                By J. F. Kelly, Jr.

“You have a democracy, if you can keep it”

–Benjamin Franklin

                According to U. S. Census Bureau estimates, just under two-thirds of voting age Americans actually voted in the 2020 presidential election. That is to say one out of every three Americans of voting age couldn’t somehow manage to exercise one of the most important privileges of living in a democracy like ours, to wit: the freedom to choose our leaders. This in spite of ample opportunities for convenient early voting by mail. Yet, the turnout percentage was considered high. Not so high, however, when compared with other mature democracies, where the United States ranked 31^st between Columbia (62.5%) and Greece (63.5%), according to a recent Pew Institute survey. Uruguay ranked first at 94.9%.

                We did even worse in the 2022 midterm elections which flipped party control of the House of Representatives by a narrow margin. Only about 47.5%, less than half of Americans of voting age, bothered to vote. Another Pew survey prior to the midterm elections said that 72% of registered voters said they were “very motivated” to vote in the midterm elections. Apparently, not motivated enough.

                The 2020 contest between incumbent president Donald Trump and Joe Biden was close with Mr. Biden receiving 306 electoral votes, 36 more than the required 270, and 81.2 million popular votes and Mr. Trump receiving 232electoral votes and 74.2 million popular votes. Imagine how different the results could have been had that one-third Americans of voting age done their duty and voted. An expression commonly heard after the votes are counted is “The people have spoken”. Not all of them, however.

                The turnout percentage level of young people is especially low and their interest level in politics and government operations apparently even lower. This may be attributed to a paucity of civics education at the high school level. A 2016 survey by the University of Pennsylvania’s Annenberg Public Policy Center found that only 26%, or about one out of four respondents, could name all three branches of government which was a significant decline from previous years. At the same time, voter participation reached its lowest point in twenty years. Meanwhile, pressure grew on schools to focus more on the basics and increase math, reading and science skills, if necessary, at the expense of other subjects. Civics appears to have been a casualty of this emphasis. Public trust in government dropped to 18% during this period suggesting another reason for the lack of interest in politics and the feeling that one’s vote made little difference.

                In spite of widespread lack of knowledge or interest among young people regarding how the government is organized and how it functions, one hears much talk about reducing the voting age to increase voter turnout. But given the lack of civics classes and interest, this would accomplish little more than further reductions in the percent of people of voting age that actually vote. Another argument for decreasing the voting age is the notion that if one is old enough to fight a country’s wars, one is old enough to vote. Actually, the two have little in common.

                Currently, the leading contenders for the 2024 presidential election are the incumbent, President Joe Biden, and former president Donald Trump. Either, if elected, would be the oldest to serve in the most powerful political office on earth. Their advanced ages and qualifications are a concern to many voters and especially to younger voters. But their concern won’t matter if they don’t vote in the primary elections to determine who the nominees will be. Voter turnout will be key and to stay competitive both parties need to do a better job of appealing to young voters. This is simply not going to happen if their choice is between the current two leading front runners. And young people of voting age need to realize that voting is a privilege and a precious freedom. It carries with it a responsibility to become aware of the issues involved. As Ronald Reagan said, “Freedom is a fragile thing and it’s never more than one generation away from extinction.

August 11, 2023