The People’s Choices

                A commentary

                By J. F. Kelly, Jr.

                Super Tuesday has come and gone and with it any realistic path to the GOP nomination for Nikki Haley to head her party’s ticket in November. The pity is that polls consistently showed her beating the incumbent president Joe Biden by a greater margin than former president Donald Trump, the presumptive GOP candidate, would. Polls have his margin of victory barely above the margin of error. We know that polls are only snapshots in time, however, and there are eight months to go before the election. Mr. Trump has previously demonstrated that he can always figure out a way to lose. 

As expected, Trump cemented his commanding lead over the former South Carolina Governor and his former Ambassador to the United Nations who had the audacity to challenge him, thus earning his wrath. Will Trump be magnanimous in victory and reach out to her? He should because Republicans need a female on the ticket to help counter the female vote over the abortion issue. A recent Wall Street Journal poll shows Biden leading Trump among women under 30 by 32 percentage points and among women of all ages with college degrees by 22 points. A ticket headed by Nikki Haley, on the other hand, would beat Biden by about 10 points, according to the polls.

As things now stand, voters will get the same flawed choices for the most powerful elected office in the world. They might reasonably ask why the parties can’t do better than this. Surely, there are transformational leaders out there without baggage like that which these two candidates carry who would make great presidents. But ask yourself if you would put yourself and your family through what candidates and office holders are subjected to these days.

Mr. Trump likely will have the nomination wrapped up by the end of March. This was hardly even a contest. We didn’t hear either candidate debate. We hardly heard from Biden at all. Trump will continue to attend rallies surrounded by adoring fans. We will probably continue to not hear much from Biden. His access to a microphone will be carefully managed by his handlers. This is Biden’s fifth campaign for the presidency or vice-presidency. It’s Trump’s third run for the presidency. We already know most of what we need to know about both candidates. Think of the millions wasted on campaign expenses. It’s shaping up to be a long, boring summer. Thank Heaven for baseball. The people deserve better choices.

They also deserve fewer elections. Since neither Biden nor Trump, if elected in November, can run again, they will be lame ducks from day 1. The campaign to replace them in 2028 will begin very early. First term Incumbents spend too much time campaigning for re-election and not enough doing what they were elected to do. The Mexican model of a single, six-year term is far more efficient.

Both candidates, in taking credit for their victories, called for unity. Unity, however, is not Mr. Trump’s strong suit. He said previously that any of Haley’s supporters who have contributed financially to her campaign would not be welcome in the MAGA movement. He missed a golden opportunity to be gracious in victory by reaching out to her and her supporters. Biden did. Trump will need them to win. He should seriously consider her as his running mate.

Haley also missed the same opportunity to show unity by offering her support to Mr. Trump and remaining open to any key role in his administration including vice-president. Unfortunately, she said that she would not and Trump said that he wouldn’t ask her. Big mistake. Since Trump can’t run again and if Haley aspires to run in 2028 the best preparation might be four years as his vice-president with significant responsibilities including counseling Trump against the overreach he is prone to (although that role didn’t do much for Mike Pence’s presidential aspirations). In the early years of our nation, the top two vote getters in presidential elections, regardless of party, served as president and vice-president, respectively. The VP, being elected, could not be fired by the president and replaced by someone of his own party. 

When Donald Trump laments that he envies dictators he gets accused of admiring them. But envy is not the same as admiration. He says he would be a dictator only on day one. But so was Biden in terminating many of Trump’s initiatives, notably regarding border security. Trump envies their power to get things done. China, for instance, recently announced that it plans to increase military spending by 7.2% this year, matching last year’s increase. This continues two decades of continuing increases in defense spending, resulting in among other things the largest navy in the world and a huge defense infrastructure enabling it to grow even larger. This despite an economy that is stalling, a real estate market on the verge of collapse and a population that is ageing.

Whatever Xi Jinping wants, he gets. Can you imagine a U.S. president of either party asking for a 7.2% increase in defense spending? Investors in the defense industry in China, unlike ours, know that this commitment is not just good until the next administration takes over. They can actually take it to the bank and invest in expansion for the long term with confidence. Capitalism has many advantages but flexibility in defense spending is not one of them. That’s why we’ll probably never catch up with China as a maritime power unless its economy collapses like the Soviet Union’s did or Xi falls from favor. Don’t hold your breath.

March 26, 2024

From Superpower to Entitlement State—–

                A commentary

                By J. F. Kelly, Jr.

                President Joe Biden did his best to sound tough in his State of the Union address but he instead came across as a cranky, old man. His claims of accomplishments are not consistent with reality nor did he acknowledge the failures. China recently announced a 7.2% increase in defense spending, matching last year’s increase. Mr. Biden’s budget for FY 2025 countered with a 1% increase in defense spending which amounts to a net loss when inflation is taken into account. Take that, axis of evil.

                Our Navy will continue to shrink, adding only six warships but retiring ten early in addition to nine already at the end of service life. The long awaited and much needed Columbia class ballistic missile submarine (SSBN) lead ship may face a one-year delay due to “supplier issues”, putting the Navy’s most important acquisitions program at risk by potentially creating a gap in replacing the ageing Ohio class SSBNs.

                The Columbia class program enhances the sea-based leg of our nuclear “triad”. It has a tight schedule already and now may require extending the Ohio class subs in service. Chief of Naval Operations Lisa Franchetti was quoted by U.S. Naval Institute News (USNI) recently as saying that the program is still meeting its deadlines but the “the margins are eroding”.   

                Navy Secretary Carlos Del Toro who recently completed a 45-day review of the Navy shipbuilding program, warned that the program was facing major headwinds according to another USNI report. The secretary toured Japanese and South Korea shipyards including Mitsubishi Heavy Industries in Yokohama and Hyundai and Hanwha Oceans shipyards in South Korea and called for more investments by foreign shipbuilders in U.S. shipyards. The question is, why should they do that when Biden’s budget limits the new ship buy to 6? Why should U.S. shipyards invest in expanding while Washington continues to shrink both the military and the merchant fleets?

                China already dominates the global shipbuilding industry having merged its two largest shipbuilders to create a state-owned industrial and military giant that dwarfs all rivals. China has thus surpassed our allies, Japan and South Korea as global leaders in shipbuilding enabling it to expand its military and merchant fleets at will. No shortage of investors there, not that they need then, being state-owned and subsidized.

                Secretary Del Toro said that U.S shipyards could learn from the Asian shipyards on how to retain their workers. He was quoted as citing examples such as building hospitals, schools, child care centers and bowling alleys which the Asians yards provided for the workers. I have a hunch that U.S. shipyard workers would probably settle for enough ship orders to ensure some job security. Del Toro said that our Navy suppliers here have not invested enough in defense infrastructure (as I’ve said for years), putting resources instead into stock buy-backs and executive compensation.

                Defense equipment and platforms of war are very expensive. Investors and firms seeking to expand abhor uncertainty. Before they expand capacity they need some assurance that the demand for their products will still exist by the time they are built. If Mr. Biden or his successor is going to continue to shrink the military and merchant fleet, why should they expand?

                Asian shipyards have much less uncertainty to live with. They are in the shipbuilding business to stay and will still be after the next election. Instead of criticizing what’s left of our defense industry, perhaps he should make it clear to his commander-in-chief, the president, that the Navy is too small by far to do the job it is expected to do if circumstances demand it or to deter an enemy from starting a war.

                This year, interest on the national debt will exceed Biden’s military budget. We’ve finally reached the point where we are placing a higher priority on entitlements and benefits than on defense. Perhaps we should apply for membership in the European Union. The president’s budget signals to the world that the era of U.S. world leadership is coming to an end. It was a great ride.  

March 21, 2024

Cracking Down on Scamming

                A commentaryac

                By J. F. Kelly, Jr.

                The sobbing, panicked, young female voice on the landline telephone can sound like just about anyone’s daughter once an anxious, protective parent’s imagination kicks in. The parent is led to believe that she’s been in a serious auto accident and is being held at a police station pending posting of bail. She is terrified and confused and doesn’t want to spend the night in jail. She is also ashamed and begs you to tell no one about this. A public defender, she says will come to the phone shortly with instructions for posting bail. All you want to do at this point is recue your little girl and bring her home.

                A quick call to your child, however, might reveal that she has not been involved in an accident and is perfectly safe. Another call to your attorney, if you’re fortunate enough to have one, might tell you that there is no such attorney as the one whose name you were given and that a public defender wouldn’t be calling you and requesting financial information and money in this manner. When the supposed public defender overhears that you are speaking to a real attorney, the scammers just hang up.

                There are many variations of this scam and many victims who fall for it. The victims are mostly elderly but they come in all ages and some have lost much or all of their savings and their sense of security. The usual mode of communications apparently is the landline telephone and many customers scan all calls before answering or have simply closed their landline accounts.

                If you suspect a call is a scam, my advice is don’t engage in any conversation. Your attempt to be courteous and polite or to scold the scammer is purely counterproductive. The more you talk the more likely you are to provide information of use to the scammer. Also, your voice or the voices of other household members may be recorded and the scammer may learn how to imitate those voices and expressions. Some scammers are so skillful at doing this that some victims refuse to believe they’ve been scammed for hours in spite of an abundance of clues.

                There are companies that offer protection from identity theft for a fee. Some offer different levels of protection and some offer to provide up to a certain level of legal assistance in repairing the damage done. They appear to have something in common in that they report suspicious activity often after the damage is already done which, of course, is perfectly legal.

                A service widely advertised on television may offer to protect your ownership in real estate including your home. It monitors your title and reports any activity to change the title or place a lien against it so you can be alerted to take proper action to resolve the matter. Again, you must resolve the matter yourself. The advertisement may say that the City Clerk or similar official is required to accept a document properly signed and notarized to transfer ownership in a property even though that official may know it to be fraudulent. If this is the case, then perhaps Charles Dickens was right; the law is indeed an ass. A local area county or city clerk or tax collector, moreover, may perform this function free for property owners who sign up for the service on their web site.

                Life is difficult enough these days without having to deal with scammers on a what seems to be a daily basis. It seems to me that the government could do a lot more to prevent it. Perhaps it should not be so easy to transfer a valuable property like one’s home by simply presenting a one-page document that a city clerk or other official suspects, or indeed knows, is fraudulent.

                Scammers, particularly the ones that prey on the elderly and the poor, deserve to receive a punishment that will deter others. The Fraud and Scam Reduction Act (04/15/2021) expands activities to address mail, telephone and internet fraud, particularly such scams targeting older adults. It establishes a Senior Scam Prevention Advisory Group which must create model educational materials to educate employees of retail, financial service companies and wire transfer companies on how to how to identify and prevent scams that affect older adults. Monitoring and education, however, are not enough. An example needs to be made of scammers by penalties that actually deter scammers.

                By way of full disclosure, I am not an attorney nor am I offering legal advice or expertise on fraud protection.

March 9, 2024

When Cultures Clash

                A commentary

                By J. F. Kelly, Jr.

                In the recent literature on organizational theory and transformational change, considerable attention has been given to the roles that cultures play. Nations are characterized by unique cultures and so are religions, ethnic groups, large business organizations and other entities. There is general agreement among researchers that a strong and durable culture is an essential part of a successful, well-run organization. In earning a doctor of education degree at the University of San Diego, I became interested in the role that culture plays and how transformational leaders changed the culture of mature business organizations to effect change.

                After completing the required three years of coursework, I spent two years researching and writing my doctoral dissertation and published “The Transformation of a Corporate Culture in a Mature Organization” (1989) University of San Diego, 297 pp, which studied the process in the savings and loan industry as S&Ls converted to full-service banks and transformational leaders manipulated the cultures to expedite the changes. Changing a deeply-entrenched culture is difficult and not always successful as the number of failures during the S&L crisis demonstrates.

                There are many definitions of culture and the topic is still relatively new. The definition I settled on was that set of values, habits, characteristics, rules, traditions, stories, legends, heroes, metaphors and myths shared by a significant number of members that shapes their organizational, and sometimes their private, behavior. Transformational leaders, as compared to managers, will usually manipulate the culture to implement the desired change.

                Complex organizations like nations, armed forces and large corporations have sub-cultures as well which often compete for resources and attention. Some large universities with multiple schools or colleges provide an example of loosely-coupled organizations with semi-independent departments, each with a distinct culture. In the S&L industry, the principal sub-cultures were those of the branch system which gathered deposits (liabilities) and the lending offices which made the loans (assets). The successful change agent will need to be familiar with all the cultures involved. I was facilitated in this effort by having served as a career naval officer for over 30 years and as a bank executive for eleven years so I had the appropriate access for research.

                The culture of the United States is changing. Its origins date back to the founders but the founders would be aghast at the recent changes. Steve Stalinsky, executive director of the Middle East Media Research Institute, writing in a Wall Street Journal op-ed recently, described Dearborn, Michigan, as “America’s jihad capital” where thousands marched in support of Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran shouting, “Intifada,” “From the river to the sea, Palestine will be free!” and “America is a terrorist state!”

                According to Mr. Stalinsky, almost immediately after Oct. 7 people in Dearborn were celebrating the massacre of Jews by Hamas. Local Imams and politicians sided with Hamas against Israel and the United States. A local headline describing an event at the Ford Performing Art Center read “Michigan rally cheers Hamas attack.” An Imam at Dearborn’s Islamic Center of Detroit prayed that Allah would eradicate the “sick, disgusting Zionist regime.” According to the Washington Free Beacon, Stalinsky says, the Imam’s organization received funding from the Homeland Security’s nonprofit grant program. Another local sheikh implores Allah to “purify the land from the aggression of the apes, swine and hypocrites” and to normalize the use of the term “jihad”.

                Mr. Stalinsky reports that support for terrorism in Southern Michigan has been a concern for U.S.  counterterrorism officials. A 2001 Michigan State Police Assessment after 7/11 called Dearborn “a major financial support center and recruiting area and potential support base for international terror groups.”

                How can this be happening in the United States of America? This is not free speech. It’s hate speech, directed against our Jewish brothers and sisters. It is dangerous and inflammatory. Why is it tolerated?  Please don’t feel it necessary to remind me that there are many loyal, patriotic Americans of Palestinian descent. We could sure use their voices to condemn this antisemitism.

                Since President Joe Biden took office over three years ago we have lost more than just control of our southern border. We are in the process of losing our unique culture, for which many fought and died, partly because we have admitted millions of unvetted immigrants to cross illegally into our country. They come from all over the world and they include criminals and foreign agents intent on doing us harm. They are in many cases, bringing their cultures with them and despise ours. Not all cultures are created equal. Mr. Biden has either willfully or stupidly allowed this to happen. The harm is irreparable. 

March 2, 2024