Dealing With Multiple Foreign Threats

                A commentary

                By J. F. Kelly, Jr.

                As if he didn’t have enough to worry about on the home front with his domestic agenda fighting for life and confidence in his leadership at record lows and declining, President Joe Biden’s beleaguered administration faces serious, simultaneous threats on multiple fronts abroad. It’s probably no coincidence that they are occurring at the same time. Russia is massing troops on its border with Ukraine for more than just a training exercise. Russian President Vladimir Putin clearly believes that now he can have his way with Ukraine and/or extract significant concessions from the west regarding further NATO and European Union expansion in eastern Europe which he considers lies within Russia’s sphere of influence, meaning control.

                Mr. Putin obviously feels that a flailing U.S. president, beset by domestic issues bitterly dividing the country, is too weak or too timid to oppose a Russian invasion of Ukraine by force and that western Europe is too dependent on Russian energy to support much more in the way of sanctions. Mr. Putin has ample reason to feel confident. Economic sanctions didn’t stop Russia from invading parts of Georgia and Ukraine and occupying Crimea in the recent past. Mr. Biden has already accommodated him by taking an armed U.S. response off the table and suggesting last week that a “limited incursion” by Russian troops might bring only a limited response from America. To add to the confusion, he added that this is what he expects which can be interpreted as giving Moscow a green light for such a limited move in return for proportional sanctions. In negotiating with adversaries, words matter and miscommunication can cause wars. Lately it seems that almost every time Mr. Biden opens his mouth, he inserts his foot, requiring his handlers to explain what the president really meant. Yet, Mr. Biden says that he intends to spend more time explaining his positions. That should keep his press secretary really busy clarifying his explanations.

                Mr. Biden has authorized additional military aid including helicopters and other equipment. It will never be enough, however, to match Russia’s overwhelming force and could only prolong a bloody conflict and delay the inevitable outcome with much of the equipment eventually probably falling into Russian hands. As Walter Russell Mead has written in the Wall Street Journal, the only thing that can stop Putin has already been taken off the table by Biden.

                In a recent WSJ op-ed, military analyst Seth Cropsey compared the quandary we face regarding Russian threats toward Ukraine with China’s threats to invade Taiwan. He warns, correctly, that concurrent offensive military operations involving the defense of Ukraine and Taiwan would overstress U.S. military resources. Yet, it’s no stretch of the imagination to expect both crises to erupt simultaneously by design. All the more reason, then, why the wealthy western European social democracies urgently need to step up to deal with Russian aggression. It’s taking place in their backyard, not ours. The truth is, we have little vital interest in the region.

                We need to stop acting like we are still a European power, always ready to rush to the defense of the continent as we did in two world wars. The economy of the European Union is at least as large as ours but its member states won’t spend what it takes to defend its interests while spending generously on cradle-to-grave benefits. We are, however, a Pacific power with vital interests, territory and bases throughout the Pacific Basin. And we must continue to be a Pacific power or China will eventually dominate the area and determine the rules for trade, freedom of navigation and more. We will not enjoy that arrangement. Deterring China from invading Taiwan will require a strong coalition of nations including Australia, Japan, the U.K. and other Asian nations under the strong and active leadership of the U.S. and not just for imposing sanctions and issuing strong warnings. This will require significantly more funding for our military which is still operating on a continuing resolution. This is delaying essential military procurement because Congress, preoccupied with domestic legislation, has yet to allocate funding.

                Mr. Cropsey also writes that, although separated by geography, Ukraine and Taiwan “occupy similar positions in the Russian and Chinese strategic experience and historical imagination”. They are, however, separated by much more than geography. Ukraine was once the crown jewel and breadbasket of the Soviet Empire. It existed under communist rule for decades and its population includes many ethnic Russians, Russian-speaking people and Russian sympathizers. Taiwan, on the other hand, has never been a part of the People’s Republic of China. Ceded to Japan after the Sino-Japanese War in 1895, the island, then also known as Formosa, remained under Japanese rule until World War II, half a century later. The people of Taiwan, which is formally known as the Republic of China, have never lived under communist rule. It is in our interest and that of our allies in Asia, that they never do and that Taiwan remain a thriving independent democracy, important ally and trading partner.    

January 27, 2022

A Failure to Unify

                A commentary

                By J. F. Kelly, Jr.

                The Biden/Harris ticket won election by a relatively-slim margin. Had outgoing president Donald Trump not clumsily interfered in the Georgia senate runoff election, Republicans would probably have a majority in the U.S. Senate today, forcing President Joe Biden to govern more from the center which is where most Americans find their comfort level. The close election was by no means a mandate for radical change and more of a mandate for the parties to work together. It was, in any event, not a mandate to extend the long reach of the federal government to exercise further control over the lives of Americans who traditionally have been protective of individual rights.

                Mr. Biden ran as a uniter but thus far, a quarter of the way through his term, he has failed to unite even his own party and his policies and mandates have further divided an already deeply divided nation. Instead of governing from the center as his recent Democrat predecessors had, he moved further left to appease the vocal progressives in his splintered party whose support he needed not only to get elected, but to implement his agenda.

                Following his bungled withdrawal from Afghanistan, the crisis he created at the southern border by his abrupt reversal of the border enforcement and asylum policies of Donald Trump without a plan in place to deal with the resulting chaos, the cancellation of the Keystone Pipeline completion, further restrictions on drilling and fracking, failure to control inflation and the epidemic of crime in the cities, he failed to get his Build Back Better Bill, the centerpiece of his domestic agenda, passed. The administration then made its voting rights bill its top priority. But the bill’s sweeping measures to revise election procedures doesn’t pass constitutional muster because they impinge upon the constitutional rights of the individual states to determine election procedures.   

                These rights may not be popular with progressives in the densely-populated Democrat metropolises who may wish that the United States was a more monolithic nation run by the executive branch in Washington. But that was not what the founders had in mind when they formed this “more perfect union” of states which retained certain rights as a condition for joining this perfect union. Congress can, of course, enact legislation designed to improve election procedures, but it must pass constitutional muster which does not include taking over the process.

                Mr. Biden’s recent speech in Georgia criticizing the wave of voting legislation passed by the various states, tarred them all with the same brush. It was, in my view, a new low point in his presidency. He compared those who opposed the Democrats’ voting bill to segregationists and implied that the 2022 midterm elections would now be suspect because of the changes made by the states. Is the president of the United States actually comparing a majority of the senators, including two of his own party, and at least half of all Americans with segregationists because they disagree with him on the voting rights bill? I thought we had reached the lowest depths of the presidential talent pool when Donald Trump was nominated but I was wrong.

                The president falsely charged many of the states with making it more difficult for people to vote. In Georgia, these changes, contrary to what Mr. Biden implied, preserved voting by mail, made permanent the ballot drop boxes which were used as a temporary measure in 2020 and required that election officials could only be removed if malfeasance or gross negligence were proved. Its voting rules are, in fact, considerably more lenient and accommodating than those of Mr. Biden’s home state of Delaware or in Democrat strongholds like New York and Massachusetts. In Georgia, anyone can vote by mail for any reason. In New Hampshire, with perhaps the strictest voting laws, the turnout percentage in 2020 was higher than in California with perhaps the loosest. Where were the media fact checkers?

                Democrats have threatened to pass their voting rights bill by changing Senate rules to enable it to pass by a simple majority instead of the 60% needed to pass most legislation other than budget reconciliation-related items. This would involve eliminating the filibuster. To pass a rule change in a Senate evenly divided at 50-50, all 50 Democrat votes plus Vice-president Kamala Harris’ tie-breaker would be needed because all 50 Republican senators are opposed. But Senators Krysten Sinema (D-Ariz.) and Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) have clearly stated their opposition to eliminating the filibuster, dooming the Democrats’ voting bill to the defeat it deserves. The 60-vote super majority requirement exists to prevent what is sometimes referred to as the tyranny of the majority.  A simple majority by as little as, say, one vote should not determine whether or not important legislation like, say, a major tax increase, which effects nearly half of the population, passes.      

                Sen. Sinema, in expressing her opposition to eliminating the filibuster, said that although she supports the voting rights bill, she would not support measures that “worsen the underlying disease of division infecting our country”. She should be commended for having the courage to vote her conscience rather than what her party demands in order to avoid being compared with segregationists.

January 21, 2022

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Women in Warships

                A commentary

                By J. F. Kelly, Jr.

                The Nimitz-class nuclear-powered aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln recently departed its San Diego homeport for another lengthy distant duty deployment. This one, however, was unique for at least two reasons. It’s the first carrier deployment for a Marine Corps F-35C fighter squadron and in command of the 95,000-ton warship was the first woman to command a nuclear-powered aircraft carrier. Capt. Amy Bauernschmidt, a helicopter pilot who previously served as the ship’s executive officer, assumed command in August of last year. She had high praise for her crew’s performance during the rigorous months of work-up for the deployment. She deserves some praise herself for her accomplishments.

                The Abraham Lincoln is the flagship of a carrier strike group that includes a guided-missile cruiser, four guided-missile destroyers and the embarked air wing which includes F/A 18s, F-35Cs electronic attack aircraft and helicopters. It is one of three carrier strike groups currently deployed at a time of increased tensions with China and Russia, putting added stress on our overworked and undersized carrier fleet of 11 ships.

                A distinguished and decorated naval officer and aviator, Capt. Bauernschmidt logged more than 3,000 flight hours during her career. She previously served as commanding officer of Helicopter Maritime Strike Squadron 70 and the amphibious transport dock USS San Diego (LPD 22). A 1994 graduate of the U. S. Naval Academy with a BS in Ocean Engineering, she earned an MA in National Security from the U.S. Naval War College and is a Nuclear Power School graduate. She was designated a naval aviator in 1996 and has served as an instructor pilot. She has multiple deployments and shipboard tours to her credit.

                Command at sea is considered by most as the highpoint of a naval career and the path to command of a warship does not come easy. Only the very best-fitted survive the highly-selective process to qualify and Capt. Bauernschmidt is clearly one of the best. Her selection as the first woman to command a nuclear-powered aircraft carrier is an important milestone in the history of women serving in warships, a history in which I was honored to play a small part.

                In 1978, in command of the guided-missile cruiser USS Fox (CG 33) deployed to the Middle East, I wrote an essay for the Naval Institute Proceedings entitled “Women in Warships: A Right to Serve”. In it, I stated that any qualified woman should be allowed to serve in any billet in my ship. The essay helped win me a Naval Institute Author of the Year Award, but also considerable criticism from those, including flag officers, opposed to what they considered a radical proposal, tantamount to heresy coming from a sitting cruiser captain. Nevertheless, it came to pass and certainly would have eventually, even if I hadn’t written that essay.

                After that command tour I served as an assistant chief of staff for Commander Naval Surface Forces and became action officer and point of contact for the integration of the first women into ships of the Pacific Fleet other than hospital ships. The integration did not always proceed smoothly. For one thing, I was instructed by my reporting senior to proceed no faster than he was required to by higher authority, a constraint hardly conducive to efficient management. The first woman to report aboard under the program was the victim of a sexual assault, not on board or by a sailor but by a civilian shipyard worker, as she was jogging through the facility at night. Retention of woman did not reach desired levels because many left the navy after their obligated service to raise families. This resulted in much higher quotas for male retention in sea billets which in turn resulted in an overly large number of male junior officers in ships in order to provide a large enough base to select those for promotion to department head. This had the result of diluting the hands-on training opportunities at sea for those actually intending a career in surface warfare. In spite of challenges, the program was obviously successful and overdue. The women themselves proved that they were every bit as capable as the men they served with as sailors, aviators, warfighters, leaders and commanding officers of our mightiest warships.

                Congratulations to Capt. Bauerschmidt. May you be an inspiration to those who aspire to follow in your footsteps. Fair winds and following seas.

January 15, 2022

The World Grows More Dangerous

                A commentary

                By J. F. Kelly, Jr.

                While domestic issues like the Covid pandemic and associated mandates, urban crime, immigration, inflation and supply bottlenecks continue to command the attention of most ordinary Americans, global threats are compounding. With the holiday season upon us, most of our people seem far more concerned with holiday preparations and shopping than with what’s going on overseas. Meanwhile, our principal adversaries grow more menacing and provocative, confident that they are seeing the decline of America as the world’s most dominant power.

                Our chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan and the prolonged chaos at the southern border during President Joe Biden’s first year in office along with our continuing political polarization, rising crime rates and increasing pessimism over the future as revealed in recent polls adds to the impression that America is indeed a declining power. This makes the world more dangerous still because it emboldens our adversaries.

                The Biden Administration is in the embarrassing position of having to plead with Iran’s negotiators to permit America to rejoin the talks to limit Iran’s ability to develop nuclear weapons which former president Donald Trump withdrew from. Iran is demanding an end to sanctions and other concessions as the price America must pay to rejoin the agreement or even talking with our negotiators. Meanwhile, it is stepping up the enrichment of uranium, presumably until it reaches weapons grade level. Trump withdrew from the agreement because it did not prevent Iran from eventually developing nuclear weapons and the missiles to deliver them which would set off a nuclear arms race in the Middle East and present an existential threat to Israel’s survival. If we allowed that to happen, Israel would act pre-emptively for its own survival.

                In Europe, Russia masses its forces along its border with Ukraine which, as of this writing, amount to about 175,00 troops and their equipment. They are clearly not there to prevent Ukraine from invading Russia. Mr. Biden reportedly talked tough with Russia’s Vladimir Putin, warning that a Russian invasion would trigger tough economic sanctions. Sanctions, however, didn’t stop Russia from invading and annexing Crimea.

                China, having made a mockery out of the “One China, Two Systems” policy by clamping down on Hong Kong’s freedoms and threatening to invade Taiwan, a democratic American ally, important trading partner and source of microprocessors. It continues to claim sovereignty over a huge swath of the South China Sea, impinging on the economic zones and territorial seas of the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia and other southeast Asia nations. They have militarized parts of this international body of water which connects the Pacific and Indian Oceans through which over half of the world’s seaborne trade passes daily. Its aim is clearly to assert control over these sea lanes and presents a threat to freedom of navigation.

                North Korea continues to drive toward acquiring the ability to target not only American bases in the Western Pacific but American cities as well. Donald Trump’s much-celebrated talks with dictator Kim  Jong-un accomplished nothing of substance beside enhancing Mr. Kim’s reputation among his long-suffering subjects as a powerful and respected leader.  

                These threats are all real but the most serious by far is that posed by the People’s Republic of China which aims to surpass us as the world’s leading economy and military power. Not to dismiss the threat posed by Iran, Russia and North Korea, Iran’s mullahs will not be allowed to acquired nuclear weapons under any circumstances and if we, with or without our European allies, fail to stop this from happening, then Israel will have no choice but to act unilaterally. As for North Korea, Kim must be continually reminded that any attack on America, its bases or cities, or against South Korea or Japan will result in the destruction of North Korea and the end of the Kim dictatorship.

                Russia, while possessing a huge nuclear arsenal, is largely a regional power intent on ensuring that Belarus, Moldova, and at least parts of Ukraine, Georgia and other nearby nations once part of the Soviet Union with large numbers of ethnic Russians and Russian speaking sympathizers, remain within its sphere of influence and that NATO does not encroach further on its western borders. Ukraine is not a part of NATO and neither we nor NATO are under any obligation to defend it with troops, although Mr. Biden should not have reassured Putin by announcing that this was not an option. In addition to talking tough to Putin, Biden might try a little tougher talk with Europe’s leaders about getting tough with Russia and letting Putin know that their use of military force is not off their table. This mess is in Europe’s back yard, not ours.

The remaining three years of Mr. Biden’s presidency will be fraught with danger and will necessitate strong, resolute leadership to a degree not always in evidence during his first year. But he is the only president we have and hopefully will have for the next three years because those in the line of succession don’t inspire an abundance of confidence, either. In matters of foreign policy at least, it’s time to rally around the Commander-in-Chief and cease the snarky comments from the far right about his age, durability, competence and memory. When it comes to foreign policy, partisan politics must stop at our shorelines. Raising doubts about our president’s competence for political purposes helps only our adversaries.

January 4, 2022

Brave New Year——————–

                A commentary

                By J. F. Kelly, Jr.

                Christmas has come and gone and my wife and I are thankful to have enjoyed another Christmas with family and friends. We ate everything edible except the ham bone, carefully preserving it for the making of pea soup, and the figgy pudding. Who eats figgy pudding anyway? New Year’s Eve approaches which we will probably celebrate by retiring to bed early. It’s been my custom at the end of each year to suggest some New Year’s resolutions or thoughts to ponder for politicians, pundits and other opinion makers who may be too busy to formulate their own. I don’t really expect to change anyone’s deeply-held beliefs but there’s always hope so here goes.

                Wouldn’t it be great if we could return to the old-fashioned practice of journalism where news was reported objectively, devoid of the reporters’ biases? Back in ancient times when I was taking journalism courses in college, we were taught the difference between news stories and opinion pieces, op-eds and features. Opinion was confined to the editorial and opinion pages. News stories rarely carried by-lines. They reported events factually and objectively. Today, they often read like op-eds. Many readers can’t tell if what they’re reading is based on fact or on opinion and many believe everything they read or hear on TV or social media.

                It’s probably too much to expect, but let’s resolve at to try to return civility to political discourse. Can’t we just criticize the idea or the action without immediately going for the jugular and trying to destroy the person with whom we disagree?

                Everyone I talk with is disgusted over the increase in violent crime, drug use, urban filth, shoplifting and smash-and-grab episodes that are plaguing many of our cities. They are equally upset over the catch-and-release and no-cash-bail policies which put the few perpetrators the police manage to apprehend right back on the street to resume their criminal activity.

                While on the subject of crime, it’s past time to restore funding to police departments that were defunded and repurposed. Some of the reforms to policing methods represented extreme overreach by clueless politicians pandering to BLM activists demands. Even more important that refunding and restoring searches based on reasonable suspicion by well-trained law enforcement personnel is the need to restore respect for police who risk their lives daily to protect us. It’s a statistical fact that blacks have far more to fear from black criminals than from police officers of any color. The “talk” to children of any color should emphasize the need to show respect, stop talking back, keep your hands in sight and do exactly what you’re told. Period. The police officer is the adult in charge whether you like it or not. That’s the way it’s supposed to work.

                The riots, looting, violence, vandalism and arson that followed the killing of George Floyd probably did more to damage racial relations than the actual killing of Mr. Floyd did. It did serious damage to the BLM cause which started with the noblest of intentions but lost public support when lawful demonstrations organized by well-intended amateurs spiraled out of control and descended into violence and criminal activity. Until Dr. Martin Luther King’s dream of a colorblind society is achieved wherein all people are judged, not by the color of their skin but by the content of their character there will be a racial relations problem in America. The notion that blacks cannot succeed and compete against members of any race in America without special assistance from whites is not only insulting to blacks but is demonstrably wrong, given the number of blacks in positions of power. Policies that promote victimhood do them a great injustice and trivialize what they accomplished on there own.

                Those who seek to become more involved in civic affairs and worthy causes should resolve to consider carefully how best to spend their time and energy. There is a huge difference in productivity and efficacy between talking and marching in support of a cause and actually doing something constructive to achieve desired results. Demonstrating, shouting clever slogans and interrupting traffic may make you feel good about exercising your rights but is highly overrated in terms of gaining support or sympathy. You won’t win support for your cause by intimidating or inconveniencing people. A letter to an appropriate official or representative or volunteering to help people who need it will usually achieve more than a day spent marching and chanting slogans.

                Finally, it’s past time to restore some old-fashioned patriotism throughout society and especially in schools. No nation is without faults and we’ve had ours. Overall, though, the United States of America has been a tremendous force for good. It’s hard to imagine what the world would be like today if there hadn’t been a USA. And imperfect as it might be, it is still the preferred destination for all the world’s huddled masses who willingly risk their lives just trying to get to this land of opportunity. In spite of its faults, it’s still the greatest nation on earth and it’s our homeland.

                Happy New Year and God bless America.

January 1, 2022

Peace on Earth Requires More Good Will—–

                A commentary

                By J. F. Kelly, Jr.

                The angels’ message to the shepherds announcing the good news of the birth of a Savior spoke of peace on earth toward men of good will. We could use a little more of each. Two thousand and twenty-one years later, peace is still elusive and good will even more so. Still every year at Christmas, we repeat those sentiments and hope that the season will bring new reasons for hope.

                The birth of Christ brought hope to the world and as we celebrate each anniversary of that birth, we renew that hope for peace and mutual good will among people. Even during the darkest days of our Civil War and two World Wars, there are recorded instances of brief pauses in the fighting to celebrate Christmas and to pray and sing carols, sometimes across battle lines.

                Each year there are words spoken about the “real” meaning of Christmas but they often miss the mark. We’re told that Christmas is about giving, often resulting in an orgy of Christmas shopping and stress over what to give to whom. That’s great for sales and profit and no one should begrudge the revenue that merchants may require to make their entire year profitable. The three kings brought gifts to the infant Jesus but somehow today the giving of lavish gifts while others starve, lack shelter and struggle to heat their homes doesn’t seem to be exactly what Christmas is all about. Think, then, about including the needy through your favorite charities on your Christmas gift list.

                When asked, many answer that Christmas is mainly for children and for the annual visit of Santa Claus laden with gifts. That’s a wonderful sentiment and tradition but it’s certainly not what Christmas is all about. Christmas is for everyone, not just for children. But while you’re planning the best Christmas ever for your kids, think about including charities that provide clothing, toys and treats for needy children on your gift list.

                Christmas season is a time for church celebrations including Christmas concerts featuring the beloved classical Christmas music of the masters which has inspired worshipers for generations. The past two years, however, has seen a precipitous decline in church attendance. Covid pandemic precautions contributed to part of that but the start of the decline preceded the pandemic. For many Christians, attending church is just a twice a year event, mainly to enjoy the pomp and ceremony of Easter and Christmas celebrations, including the beautiful religious music beautifully sung and played by artists. Sadly, some churches have cut back on music programs which contributed so much to these celebrations for decades.

America was founded by Christian pilgrims who sought religious freedom and has prospered among the nations as a nation under God. Our values, traditions and culture are based on Christian-Judaic principles. For most of our history we have celebrated Christmas as a Christian holiday while extending Christmas greetings and blessings not only to other Christians but to all people of good will. We did, that is, until it became politically incorrect to do so and “Merry Christmas” became “Happy Holidays”. But Christmas refers quite specifically to the annual celebration of the birth of Jesus Christ. To Christians, it is more than just a happy winter holiday, it is a holy day. After Easter, which celebrates not the Easter bunny, but the resurrection of Christ from the dead, it is the holiest day of the year.

                Good will to all men refers to an attitude of friendliness and cooperation toward all. Christians are commanded by their faith to love their fellow humans, including even their enemies. Indeed, of all the commandments, love is the greatest. Love toward one another is hardly a universal trait in the world or in our nation today. I’m not optimistic that this will change much this season, but there is aways hope.

                Merry Christmas to all. Try to love one another. That’s the best gift you can give anyone at any price.

December 25, 2021