Let Israel Win

                A commentary

                By J. F. Kelly, Jr.

                In spite of gathering storm clouds and warnings about the threat posed by the axis of evil, China, Russia, Iran and North Korea, the United States is still woefully unprepared for a major conventional war involving multiple fronts. To deter that war, which would be a global disaster, we must be prepared to win it. We are not and our adversaries undoubtedly know it. But most Americans, especially young Americans, are blissfully unaware of the threat, preoccupied as they are by domestic issues and our porous southern border.

                The failure of successive U.S. administrations to rebuild the defense industrial infrastructure that produces the weapons of war, particularly those platforms necessary to expand our navy and air force to a level commensurate with what it takes to defend our far-flung vital interests, will be noted by historians as a colossal failure of leadership. At this point we will have to do the best with what we have. Rebuilding the military will take much more time than we will likely have. Much of the world already sees us as a declining superpower, unable to back up our threats, bluster and lines in the sand.

                Making the best of what we have includes using our allies to our best mutual advantage. As long as Russia has Ukraine to contend with it poses no immediate threat to Europe, NATO or us. As long as Israel is permitted to eliminate Hamas it does us and the civilized world a favor. But we should not tie their hands or dictate the rules of engagement, especially when we have no skin in the game. Ukraine and Israel are suffering the casualties for us as well as for themselves.

                It is poor strategy to try to tell them how to fight these wars in their own neighborhoods. We tried to run a conflict in Korea and Vietnam from Washington and ended up with a stalemate in Korea and then snatched defeat from the jaws of victory in Vietnam when Congress cut funding because the public grew weary of the slow progress.

                In perhaps the silliest column of her otherwise distinguished journalistic career, Peggy Noonan actually urged Israel to replace Bejamin Netanyahu as their leader. In the middle of a war, after the horrific events of October 8 when they were invaded by Hamas militants who attacked, tortured, murdered, kidnapped and raped Jewish civilians including women, some pregnant, children and even babies, some of whom were decapitated. This was a casus belli, a legitimate cause for a declaration of war. Mr. Netanyahu may not be a candidate for the Nobel peace prize but he is a wartime leader. Besides, isn’t there something about changing horses in the middle of a stream?

                For that matter, who is more experienced in fighting Islamic radicals, Netanyahu and his generals or Messrs. Blinken and Biden? This is a real war, not a conflict with limited objectives dictated by Washington. Perhaps we have forgotten how to win a real war since we haven’t won one since 1946. And what does the Biden Administration intend to do about the disgraceful anti-Israel demonstrations and anti-Semitism taking place in our cities and campuses? The ill-informed students, many of them juveniles, are ignorant of history and many of them couldn’t find Israel on the map. They are giving aid and comfort to a terrorist group which seeks the death of Jews and Americans and the destruction of the Jewish state.       

                The Biden Administration and the mainstream media still believe that they must find moral equivalency in this issue. There is none. Think of how we would react if our country experienced the horrors of October 8 and in God’s name, no less. This war is far from over. It may take months to track down and eliminate all the terrorists, but they must be eliminated. It is premature to talk about the future of Gaza and how it will be governed but it must never again become a haven for terrorism just across the border from Israel. Biden’s insistence that Palestinians must be involved in a future Gazan government is probably a non-starter with Israel. It took the Palestinians only a little over a year to lose control to Hamas. Why would Israel ever trust them again or indeed any hostile state sworn to the destruction just over the border? It was a mistake for Israel to cede it the Palestine Authority in the first place.

                Most young Americans have little knowledge of what real war is like, sheltered as they are by trigger warnings, safe spaces and speech codes. Here’s a clue. War is hell. Here’s another inconvenient fact. When you are in a war of survival and your life and loved ones and homeland are at risk it matters less how you fight the war than whether or not you win. Losing is not an option. That’s how we won WW-II. Gaza is a densely populated, tiny strip of land with civilians and terrorists closely intermingled as a terrorist strategy. Collateral damage will be regrettable but inevitable.

November 30, 2023

Losing Confidence in Leadership

                A commentary

                By J. F. Kelly, Jr.

                Opinion is growing, especially among independents and members of his own party, that President Joe Biden should not run for re-election and will suffer a humiliating defeat for the party if he does. A much-analyzed recent Siena College/N.Y. Times poll showed him losing to former president Donald Trump in five of six swing states. Mr. Trump wins in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, by double digits in Nevada, Pennsylvania and loses by a whisker in Wisconsin.  

                It’s still early, of course, and a lot can happen in a year. My concern is that it will and not for the better while we still have a leader in apparent cognitive decline at the helm. It was the very height of irresponsibility for Mr. Biden to pick Kamala Harris as his running mate in 2020. He limited his choices by gender and race, excluding over 90% of the population, putting inclusion ahead of merit. Nominees for president need to choose as a running mate someone who has demonstrated the leadership qualities necessary to succeed to the presidency at a moment’s notice.

 Ms. Harris is a textbook example of the Peter Principle. Canadian educator, Lawrence Peter famously observed that in a hierarchy, people tend to rise to their level of incompetence (called the Peter Plateau). She was a competent lawyer and state attorney general. Vice-president is an executive position, first in line to succeed to the presidency. If ever we needed a strong Veep, it’s now, given Mr. Biden’s age and decision to run again. Her performance in three years and her low approval record shows little evidence that she is ready for such a responsibility.

Mr. Biden defeated Mr. Trump in 2020 and reportedly remains confident that he can beat him again in 2024. Trump is his opponent of choice. He should be more carful of what he wishes for. With every charge leveled against Trump, he grows stronger in the polls. His supporters have already factored in the indictments and have dismissed them as politically-weaponized justice. They have made Donald Trump a political martyr. Nice work, Democrats. Let me remind you of your role in this by trying to de-legitimize Mr. Trump’s 2016 election victory with phony Russian collusion charges and impeachments.

Not only do recent polls show Trump beating Biden and Harris a drag on the ticket, they show Democrats losing ground with Hispanics and with blacks, with black support dipping below 80% for the first time in recent memory. A recent Quinnipiac Poll found Biden’s lead among Hispanics has shrunk to 10 points and to 2 points among young voters.    

Mr. Biden should not run in 2024. He should put the nation’s well-being ahead of his own ego. My immediate concern, though, is whether or not we can make it through the remaining 13 months of his term. He has committed us to supporting Ukraine for “as long as it takes.” If that means until Russia returns Crimea to Ukraine we’re talking about a very long time. Russia eventually wins a war of attrition.

Biden’s support of Israel is waning. He and Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s warnings about collateral damage including civilian casualties and calls for a pause in the fighting for humanitarian purposes amount to interference in a war for Israel’s survival which we said we would support. He fails to recognize the threat that Iran poses in the region. Tehran must not be permitted to acquire nuclear weapons but they are on a track to do just that, thanks to Obama and Biden policies.

China is seeking to colonize and militarize the vast and heavily-traveled South China Sea, threatening freedom of navigation. It is poised to invade Taiwan at a time of its choosing. North Korea remains a threat.

 Our total commitments greatly exceed our conventional military capabilities. We simply are not ready for a multi-front, conventional war involving big powers in spite of years of warning and gathering storm clouds. Successive U.S. administrations, including Trump’s, have failed to make Americans aware enough of the risks of war and our lack of readiness. We have now run out of time. Our shipbuilding and repair facilities are already at capacity and we can’t catch up on maintenance of what we have.

Mr. Biden seems to be losing control of events that the leader of the free world and strongest nation needs to have. He seems confused much of the time and apparently thinks that Russia, China and Iran can be deterred by warnings, bluster and visits by Blinken. His approval ratings are in the toilet suggesting that a majority of the people have lost confidence in his ability to lead. Yet, he will be our leader, if not for the next five years, then at least for the dangerous 13 months ahead. We’ll have to do the best we can with what we have and hope for the best.

October 19, 2023

No Time to Go Wobbly

                A commentary

                By J. F. Kelly, jr.

                It was only a matter of time before President Joe Biden would start to go wobbly, to use Margaret Thatcher’s memorable phrase, regarding his support for our ally Israel’s righteous war to eliminate Hamas as a threat to Jews and the Jewish homeland. Already he and Secretary of State Antony Blinken have warned Israeli leaders to avoid civilian casualties in Gaza. Previously, he urged Israel to delay its ground offensive for humanitarian reasons. It’s been less than a month since the savage attack by Hamas butchers, which killed thousands of innocent Israelis, some as they slept, including pregnant women, children and babies. It didn’t take long for Mr. Biden’s support to become tepid.

                Once the land phase had begun, the Biden Administration urged a pause in the fighting to get humanitarian aid into Gaza, deal with civilian casualties and replenish food, fuel and medicine. Israel rightly refused, pointing out the obvious fact that Hamas had plenty of fuel for rockets which they refused to share with the Gazans, and that they would use the time to regroup, steal the humanitarian supplies for the military and even siphon the fuel from the trucks transporting the supplies. How could a terrorist organization, like Hamas, capable of such obscene crimes as those they committed October 7^th, be trusted ever again? There were already pleas for a negotiated end to the war, notably from the UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres. As Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said, that would amount to an Israeli surrender which is not going to happen.

                Israel is engaged in a war for survival. It is easy enough for the United States, separated by vast oceans from the fighting, to issue such warnings. It is quite another matter for Israel, a tiny nation in a dangerous region which has just suffered the most outrageous atrocities imaginable, to pay much attention to scoldings from a distant nation that has no skin in the game. The proper response of a true ally, at this point in time at least, would be unconditional support, not warnings about restraint. Israel is famous for practicing restraint but restraint has not kept its people safe. Living together in peace is not possible with people who wish to kill you, decapitate your baby and rape your pregnant wife.

                Nor do the Israeli leaders need to be lectured about the rules of war and the need to avoid civilian casualties. They have abundant experience in this area. Besides, it comes across as a little hypocritical, given that we carpet-bombed German and Japanese cities and obliterated two Japanese cities to end WW-II sooner.

                The Gaza strip is one of the most densely populated areas in the world. It is a maze of streets and tunnels compressed into a small, narrow strip of territory and Hamas and the Palestinian residents are closely intermingled. It is virtually impossible to separate them and almost any attack on Hamas positions will result in Palestinian casualties called collateral damage. Mr. Netanyahu and his generals have every interest in minimizing these casualties because they benefit Hamas in portraying Israel as the oppressor, especially given the world-wide resurgence of anti-Semitism. They will make every effort, therefore, to minimize collateral damage so long as it doesn’t significantly add to Jewish casualties or risk a victorious conclusion, victory being nothing less than complete destruction of Hamas. Terrorists need to know that each of them will be hunted down to the last person no matter how long that may take or where they may hide.

                The disgraceful anti-Semitic demonstrations, especially on U. S. college campuses, are a serious concern. I would like to ask those demonstrators a few questions. First, if it had been your children kidnapped, would you be demonstrating against Israel? If it had been your pregnant wife raped repeatedly in front of your children, whose side would you be demonstrating against? If it had been your baby decapitated, who would you be demonstrating for? I have other questions but you catch my drift. The anti-Israel demonstrations send a message to allies and adversaries that the United States, under Mr. Biden, is a weak ally seeking to find moral equivalence in a war where there is none. Instead of moralizing and preaching restraint to an ally that that has consistently displayed this quality and is fighting for its very existence, it should show stronger support. Instead, Mr. Biden picks this time to call for a two-state solution after the war. Seriously?

Haven’t we tried that over and over again for decades and achieved the same result? Why would it succeed the next time? Isn’t a definition of insanity trying the same thing over and over again but expecting a different outcome than the one that always occurs? Why would Israel ever again trust Palestinian leaders to negotiate in good faith after the events of October 7^th? The Palestinian people deserve fair and humane treatment but they weren’t even able to manage to retain control of the tiny Gaza strip. Much less would they be ready to manage a larger independent state that would be hostile to Israel from the start and vulnerable to takeover by terrorist groups.

November 10, 2023

Preparing for a Dangerous Future

                A commentary

                By J. F. Kelly, Jr.

“The world is a tinderbox.”

-Mike Johnson (R-La.)

                                              Speaker of the House of Representatives

                Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has disappointed many of his early supporters of his campaign to win the GOP presidential nomination while continuing to please his Sunshine State constituents. That’s because he is focused on running the nation’s third most populous state which he does quite well, judging from the margin by which he won a second term. Good for him. He’s young enough to wait another four years to run for president and no one relishes slugging it out with Donald Trump for the nomination.

                An op-ed by The Wall Street Journal’s Barton Swaim, however, says that foreign policy clearly bores him. If true, that’s important because foreign policy is likely to be anything but boring during the next five years and America is much in need of transformational leadership to get us through it. That leadership cannot be provided by anyone who is bored by foreign affairs.

It’s certainly true that we have had an abundance of domestic issues to deal with, not the least of which is a crushing national debt now in excess of $33T. Crime, drug addiction and homelessness have made a mess of our cities, Congress is dysfunctional and the Republicans took three weeks to elect a speaker, a person second in line to the presidency and essential to the legislative process.

But as serious as our domestic problems are, only one can be considered existential and that’s the southern border crisis which simply can’t go on. But even that could be got under control by militarizing the border as any sensible nation would do in dealing with a border out of control. The Mexican cartels appear to have more control over who and what crosses the border into the United States than Homeland Security does. Control of the border is no longer a job for the Border Patrol. It’s a job for the National Guard and the Coast Guard.

Wars tend to happen suddenly, when deterrence finally fails. Domestic problems fester slowly with many warnings and some time to act. It took decades of excessive spending by both parties to amass our obscene debt. It took decades of fossil fuel consumption to create dangerous levels of global warming and there are ways to deal with that without declaring war on the entire oil industry. But Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine suddenly. Hamas snuck across the border from Gaza into southern Israel suddenly one night and slaughtered thousands of Israelis, some in their beds, beheading babies, raping and killing pregnant women, taking hostages and shattering the peace in the Middle East. And suddenly we have two U.S. aircraft carrier strike groups and an amphibious assault group deployed off the Levant coast hoping that it will deter Iran, Hezbollah, Syria, Lebanon or anyone else from intervening.

The People’s Republic of China (PRC) may decide suddenly that the time is right for it to invade Taiwan before we are ready to do much about it. And Supreme Leader, Kim Jong-un in North Korea may suddenly decide to join the fun while a weak U.S. president is still in power.

The disturbing reality is that we are not ready for all this. Our navy and air force is far too small and it will take years to get them expanded to the size necessary to confront the challenges they could face suddenly. We are entering dangerous waters with an old man at the helm that seems confused much of the time leading to questions as to who is really running things.

     The Vice-president is clearly not ready for that responsibility. We are committed to the continued support of Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan and numerous other allies who count on our leadership. Those candidates that seek the most powerful political office on earth had better get interested in foreign affairs in a hurry if they aren’t already.

Oh, and we’re going to need a bigger boat.

November 2, 2023