Red Tide Denied

Red Tide Denied—————————-

                A commentary 

                By J. F. Kelly, Jr.

                Many pre-election polls predicted a red wave of GOP victories in the mid-term elections. They were wrong again. The red ripple was barely enough to rock a canoe. I had referred to the elections as “pivotal”. I was also wrong. Americans may feel like the country is headed in the wrong direction, but I don’t see a course correction coming in the next two years.

                It seems like the polls have gotten things wrong a lot lately. Why? Probably because they still depend a lot on surveys and, if you’re like me, you’re reluctant to take the time to fill out a lengthy questionnaire, especially if accompanied by a request for money, or participate in a survey by telephone which always comes at an inconvenient time.  Also, people are increasingly concerned with privacy issues.

                Over $8.6 billion was spent on mid-term election advertising, almost as much as the $9 billion spent on the 2020 presidential election advertising. Was it really worth it? Think of how that money might have been better spent feeding the hungry or building infrastructure. Now begins the 2024 presidential campaign which will likely set a new record for spending.

                The big story, of course, was Florida where Gov. Ron DeSantis and Sen. Marco Rubio won re-election by a landslide. Mr. DeSantis established himself as a leading contender for the Republican presidential nomination, prevailing throughout the state, including in areas where Joe Biden won in 2020. He won big, moreover, with Hispanic voters of all backgrounds and national origins, not just Cuban-Americans.

                The big loser, on the other hand, was former President Donald Trump. The candidates he backed largely underperformed and won his backing by supporting his delusional claim to have won the 2020 election. Given the low approval rating of President Joe Biden and the fact that about 70% of Americans feel the country is headed in the wrong direction, this was an election that was the GOP’s to lose and they managed to do essentially that.

                Women comprise 52% of total voters and they voted for Democrat candidates by 50% to 46% according to an AP VoteCast survey. Pocketbook issues like the cost of living and safety issues like crime were cited most often as their principal concerns but concerns over abortion restrictions certainly influenced their vote as well.

                If the GOP learns nothing else from its disappointing performance, it must be the urgent need to get rid of Donald Trump and start to coalesce around a new party leader like Ron DeSantis who can actually lead and knows how to govern. They must avoid another circular firing squad of a nomination process with Trump directing personal attacks against anyone who would dare to disagree with or run against him. If Trump should win the nomination, Republicans will lose in 2024 and they will deserve to.

                Trump lost to Joe Biden, a weak and ageing candidate who conducted an anemic campaign from his Delaware basement. What makes Mr. Trump or his backers believe things would be any different in 2024? He barely beat Hillary Clinton in 2016 and probably won only because of the last-minute meddling of then-FBI Director James Comey. His own meddling in the 2020 Georgia runoff election cost the GOP control of the Senate. Trump is a loser, and a sore one at that, who lacks the temperament, judgment and communication skills to be president. He is a greater asset to the Democrats than to the Republic Party.

                Mr. Trump referred to Mr. DeSantis as Gov. DeSanctimonious. After the governor’s landslide victory, he said, “I don’t know that he’s running (for president). I think if he runs, he could hurt himself very badly. If he did run, I will tell you things about him that won’t be very flattering. I know more about him than anybody other than perhaps his wife, who is really running his campaign.” This is vintage, trash-talking Trump, focused on himself and out to get his enemies as a first priority. If he decides to run again, he will be a millstone around the neck of the GOP and a life preserver for his opponent.

                It’s fashionable to say after every election that the people have spoken. They have spoken alright, but with many mixed messages. We are indeed divided, not neatly in two, but rather into several factions increasingly intolerant of each other. We are still in search of a unifier who knows how to lead. Neither President Joe Biden or former President Donald Trump will be up to the challenge. People are tired of dysfunctional government and yearn for competence. If the two-party system can’t provide this soon, then a third major party may be needed.

Happy Thanksgiving.

November 22, 2022

How to Destroy the Warrior Culture

                A commentary

                By J.F. Kelly, Jr.

Back in the 1970s when I was advocating for women to serve in warships and other non-traditional and combat roles and we were more focused on equal opportunity and merit rather than Inclusiveness, equity and diversity, one of the common arguments against the Women in Ships program was concern that standards would be lowered to accommodate the women. If, for example, fewer women than men qualified for command or the percentage that did qualify fell significantly short of their percentage of the general population, pressure from Congress, the media or the general public would eventually force the lowering of the standards for women in order to “level the playing field”.

That would be a sure path to destruction of the military’s warrior culture and fortunately, it didn’t happen. Qualifications for those chosen to lead others in battle must be based on merit, judgement and character, not racial or gender balance or any method involving quotas to achieve what is now called diversity or inclusion. Ability and judgement are all that really matters in combat, not race or gender or any other accident of birth.

It came, therefore, as something of  a surprise to read an op-ed by the Secretaries of the Army, Navy and Air Force which seems to suggest that there’s “a good job that really matters” for just about anyone if they’ll volunteer to serve in the armed forces. With all due respect to the secretaries, I hope that’s not the case. If there’s a job that just about anyone can fill, that sounds like a job that can be civilianized or maybe even eliminated. As it is, there are too many strange job titles in the military that don’t sound like they have anything to do with the military’s mission which is to deter or fight wars. To paraphrase the old marine recruiting ad, the services are looking for some really good people to fill very demanding and sometimes dangerous jobs in defense of our nation.

To my way of thinking, the military is a band of brothers and sisters joined together in a common mission. Although it wasn’t always colorblind, it became so long before the rest of America did. Qualification and advancement is based upon merit and performance, not skin color, and if it doesn’t always exactly mirror the general population then that may be a reason to step up recruiting efforts among underrepresented minorities if, that is, they are allowed into their communities and campuses. The military, however, is not in the affirmative action business and should not create the impression that it can offer a good job that really matters to anyone who wants to join. Merit will always matter because the consequences of failure are too great to risk lowering standards.

If anything, qualification standards are going to increase and the services will become more technologically complex. It’s disturbing that so many Americans of draft age fail to qualify for military service because of obesity, low grades, drug usage or criminal records, but the solution must be to decrease manpower requirements by increasing automation, not lowering standards.

Military service is not just another job and the military not just another employer. It’s a way of life, especially for careerists. It must, absent a return to the draft, demand the best of the volunteers. The military therefor, must discriminate, if you will, against the overweight, the physically impaired, vision and hearing impairment, those with addiction problems, low test scores that predict inability to successfully complete technical training and those with criminal records. Selection and advancement is highly competitive and based on the needs of the service for particular skills at a given point in time, not on quotas.  Discipline is strict and attrition is high. The focus on diversity and equity, however, may give the impression that military service is comparable to civilian employment. It’s not. It’s a 24/7 commitment. We hire civilians for the shift work and there may be a job in the civil service for nearly anyone who wants one. I was assigned a civilian secretary who could barely type years ago at the Pentagon and was told to give her time to learn. The uniformed military, however, can’t afford to operate like that.

                The needs of the services can result in female underrepresentation. In the warfare specialties like surface warfare, for example, the navy must recruit more males than females because female retention is consistently lower than male retention, primarily because women want to start families by a certain age. Among other things, this results in fewer females qualifying for promotion and command than males.

                Hopefully, technological advances will compensate for recruiting shortfalls due to the declining quality of draft age Americans or diminished interest in military service. Still, there will usually always be a job available that really matters in the uniformed services but only for those with the right stuff regardless of the color of their skin.

November 11, 2022

Prioritizing the Problems

                A commentary

                By J. F. Kelly, Jr.

                The mid-term elections are less than a week away and many have already voted. As in the past, many will not even bother, the average turnout for midterm elections being about 40% of those eligible to vote and approximately 60% for presidential elections. These participation rates are significantly below those for other developed economies. This in itself is a problem although the larger one may be the failure by many voters to take the time to try to understand the issues.

                The nation faces many problems , not all of which will be much affected by the election results, but there’s always hope. Many surveys have attempted to prioritize the issues on the minds of prospective voters and, for what they’re worth, here are mine.

                The first priority, in my view, should be rebuilding our declining military capacity. Few will put this issue high on their list, but in terms of national security, they should. The president is commander-in-chief of the armed forces and this is not a presidential election but Congress controls the purse strings and is responsible for funding, equipping and maintaining the armed forces. We are clearly not prepared to fight a war on multiple fronts that may be forced upon us or to deter one and we are running out of time. We may already have because we lack the military and industrial infrastructure to mobilize to the degree necessary in time to deter China from invading Taiwan.

                Second, the service on a total federal debt of $31T and growing will soon become the largest budget line item, leaving little remaining for discretionary spending including defense. Rising interest rates will make matters worse. Obviously, this adds to the problem of rebuilding the military. This problem is not widely recognized by the public and will not be a top priority on many lists, either. It should be.

Third, the National Assessment of Educational Progress found a record decrease in math and reading proficiency for fourth and eighth graders since the last test in 2019. Nationwide, only 33% of fourth graders and 31% of eighth graders read at or above grade level. Additionally, the average ACT score for high school seniors dropped significantly. While this is bad news for the nation as a whole, it is particularly bad for military recruitment. As it is, fewer than half of Americans of service age qualify for military service.

Fourth, the southern border is out of control resulting in widespread human and drug trafficking. The Biden Administration seems clueless regarding how to regain control. This is a major concern, not only to voters residing in the border states, but also to those in every state where illegal immigrants are being sent.

Fifth is crime and violence. This will be first or second on many lists. The rise in crime is a direct result of the breakdown in parenting and the misguided efforts to defund and repurpose police departments. It will be resolved only by restoring respect for the law and for those charged with enforcing it and returning to colorblind policies that actually worked to reduce crime.

Sixth is weakness in the White House. Mental lapses usually associated with advanced age have become too frequent and potentially serious to be politely ignored or explained away by unelected staffers. While people age differently, President Joe Biden is too old to consider taking on the most powerful and difficult job in the world for an additional four more years starting in 2025. For that matter, so is former president Donald Trump, although his problems go far beyond just ageing. Both would do the nation a favor by declining to run in 2024.

Seventh is inflation which would rank near or at the top of most lists and surveys. However, we have survived periods of inflation, recessions and even depressions before. They cause pain and suffering but the consequences of failing to deter a war would be far worse.

Eighth is the war on fossil fuels This is probably the most futile act of self-sacrifice in the history of our nation. It is futile because U. S. efforts to go even totally green will have negligible effect in reducing harmful global emissions as long as China, India and the developing nations burn coal and oil which they must do for decades to come in order to survive. After decades of dependency on Middle Eastern oil, we have finally become the world’s largest producer of energy, especially clean natural gas which has done more for air quality and to reduce harmful emissions than all the world’s windmills and solar panels. We could do much more to alleviate the shortages of fuel and fertilizer derived from natural gas and lower fuel and gasoline prices if we had invested sufficiently in needed pipelines, export terminals and other facilities. Thanks to the Biden Administration, Democrat governors and the climate warriors, we didn’t. Now we have the spectacle of the President of the United States, the nation with the world’s largest supply of natural gas, pleading with Saudi Arabia and Venezuela to produce more oil to lower prices or at least delay planned reductions in production until after the election.

Ninth is the abortion issue which will be a single issue determining the votes of many prospective voters. In my view, the Supreme Court decision overturning Roe v. Wade correctly ended the constitutional protection of abortion and returned the matter to the individual states.

Tenth is election integrity. The Constitution gives the individual states the responsibility for determining rules for the conduct of elections. Candidates who will not accept election results in the absence of proof of fraud undermine election integrity and do not deserve your vote.

Whatever your reason for how or for whom you vote, take the effort to understand the issues instead of just voting in accordance with party preferences.

November 3, 2022