Christmas 2018

Reflections on the World at Christmas————————

                A commentary

                By J. F. Kelly, Jr.

The end of the calendar year is a good time for reflection on the events of that year which can help inform our resolutions for the year to come. The year 2018 was not our finest but probably not our worst, either. Trade disputes with China and others, the continuing Mueller inquest, China’s increasingly assertive military and diplomatic posture, the plight of Central American immigrants creating a humanitarian and security crisis on our southern border, a lull in the hostile rhetoric from North Korea, natural disasters increasingly blamed on climate change, the slowing down of the European and Chinese economies and the robust growth of the American economy dominated the news, at least from the serious news sources, as opposed to those stuck on the anti-Trump theme.

 

Europe seems to be falling apart, demonstrating again the difficulty that high-entitlement, social democracies have in paying for those benefits when they start to run out of other people’s money. The French riots against ever increasing taxes can easily spread to other high spenders like, for example, nearby Italy. After Britain leaves the EU, France and Italy will together comprise about 35% of the EU economy, leaving a heavy burden on Germany, the EU’s largest economy and one of the few living within its means. And Brexit is not going well for the U.K., the world’s fifth largest economy. Whether or not the border between EU member Ireland and British Northern Ireland remains open and essentially invisible could determine whether Catholic-Protestant violence resumes.

 

The Chinese economy is slowing faster than expected. That along with the trade and tariff disputes, have spooked the U.S. stock market. Still, our economy is robust, business and consumer confidence is high, unemployment has been virtually eliminated and a labor shortage now actually exists, exerting upward pressure on wages which are finally rising. Also in the past year, the United States has not only become energy independent but is now the world’s largest producer and a net exporter of energy, thanks to the removal of restrictions on drilling, pipeline construction and the exporting of crude.

 

While we have much to be thankful for, we remain bitterly divided politically. We are deeply divided over the proper role and responsibilities of government. We are unrealistic in our expectations of government because too many Americans have little understanding of how it was designed to work and its limitations and counterbalances. We continue to amass a federal debt that we will bequeath to our offspring who will struggle painfully to deal with it. We are now highly dependent on continued robust growth to generate the tax revenue needed to fund the government and are therefore vulnerable to a severe downturn and increase in inflation which would increase the cost of borrowing and the service on refinancing existing debt.

 

We are also deeply divided on immigration policy, perhaps irreconcilably so. Violence, corruption, drug trafficking and poverty in the Latin American countries, are resulting in immigrants taking desperate measures to seek asylum in the United States. But increased accommodation of these requests will not solve the problems they are fleeing and will only encourage more to come. We cannot abandon those nations to lawlessness while their populations flee nor can we accommodate all who wish to escape these problems by fleeing to the U.S. Eventually the problems must be faced at their source.

 

This time of year is commonly referred to as the holiday season. In the days before political correctness spread from college campuses and began to dictate what constitutes socially-acceptable speech, it used to be referred to as the Christmas Season. ”Merry Christmas” was the traditional greeting until the political correctness crowd decided that it might offend non-Christians. But as the word indicates, Christmas is a joyous Christian holy day, commemorating the birth of Jesus Christ, whom Christians believe to be the son of God, born as man to redeem the world. It should be a time of peace and good will toward all. It is not intended to demean anyone’s religious beliefs to wish everyone, including non-Christians, a very Merry Christmas. May yours be happy and filled with blessings.

December 27, 2018

 

Riots in France

The Paris Discords—————————–

                A commentary

                By J. F. Kelly, Jr.

                Discord is the opposite of accord and discord is what Paris and the rest of France has been experiencing, with widespread, violent protesting in the streets and, of course, the ritual torching of automobiles which seems to have become something of a French tradition. In happier days, the City of Lights lent its name to several accords, including the Paris Accords which ended the Vietnam War and, more recently, the Paris Climate Accords, also known as the Paris Agreement on Climate Action, which requires that signatories put forth their best efforts to reduce their carbon emissions and the production of greenhouse gases believed to be a cause, among other things that we can’t do much about, of global warming. Solar activity is one of those other things.

 

The United States is a participant but not a signatory to the climate agreement which produced a lot of hot air and promises but not so much in the way of results. Neither is China, which remains the world’s biggest polluter, a signatory. Moreover, President Donald Trump has promised to withdraw from the accord entirely to the dismay of green activists everywhere. France, which has long lectured us and others on the need to combat global warming by reducing fossil fuel use, derives most of its electrical power from nuclear energy, so most of its carbon emissions, about 40%, come from automobiles, most of which, of course, burn fossil fuel. In an effort to become greener, French President Emmanuel Macron’s government has targeted autos, which the rural and suburban French rely on heavily for transportation. When he announced a large tax increase on gasoline, the citizens, already among the highest taxed in the world in order to pay for liberal French social benefits, reacted with great displeasure, rioting and vandalism, although I can’t quite figure out how burning the automobiles of their suffering fellow citizens helps their case.

 

The protestors feel that the ordinary citizen is being asked to bear too much of the cost of France’s campaign to save the world from global warming. In that respect, they appear to have a lot in common with Californians whose gas prices are by far the highest in the nation, whose other state taxes come close to being the highest and who are forced to pay for projects like bullet trains that nearly no one wants or plans to use. California’s gas taxes are largely a result of stringent emission standards and expensive gas formulation requirements. With California gas taxes the highest in the land, one would think we would have the best roads in the land, but this is obviously not the case as anyone who has driven them can attest. Gov. Jerry Brown and Gov.-elect Gavin Newsome, like President Macron, apparently believe that they should lead the fight against carbon emissions no matter what the cost. French taxpayers aren’t buying it and it’s only a matter of time before Californians revolt, hopefully more peacefully. Many already have by moving out of the late, great Golden State for more tax- and business-friendly environs. And California and France aren’t alone. Taxpayers in the liberal, very green state of Washington just rejected for the second time a new carbon tax and in Canada, the province of Ontario is suing to block a federal carbon tax.

 

In the midst of violent rioting in Paris, President Macron capitulated by suspending the imposition of the tax. He went even further by announcing he would consider re-imposing a wealth tax, a form of income redistribution long favored by the French working class. It’s ironic, isn’t it, that a very green gas tax, which would reduce gasoline consumption and thus carbon emissions, would meet such violent resistance in France, which prides itself as the world leader in the fight against global warming.

 

It’s ironic, perhaps but really not too surprising. China, India and the developing countries account for most of the world’s pollution and the Paris Agreements have done little to change that. By comparison, France and California are lesser players and are already pretty green and heavily into renewable energy. China, India and developing countries will, by necessity, continue to rely on fossil fuels for a long time. The alternative would be much slower growth and too many people suffering from lack of electrical power. Renewable sources offer great hope for a reduced carbon footprint, but because of inherent reliability problems they still offer more hope than solutions. That, for the green activists, is an inconvenient truth.

December 16, 2028

Our Broken Border

Some Consequences of a Broken Border———————————–

                A commentary

                By J. F. Kelly, Jr.

As thousands of tired and hungry Central America migrants shivered in the cold rain which turned an outdoor shelter near the southern border into a dirty, muddy bog, a pickup truck loaded with eleven “suspected” illegal aliens crossed over one of the many unsecured portions of that border into the United States. Border Patrol agents saw tire tracks of multiple vehicles crossing the border headed north and soon spotted the pickup which had nine people in its uncovered bed. It sped away at high speeds and eventually crashed and rolled, ejecting nine of the occupants. Three died and the remaining eight suffered injuries ranging from moderate to severe. All required hospitalization. Fortunately, no innocent travelers on our busy freeway were injured in this all-too-common, dangerous incident.

 

`Meanwhile, a pair of Central American men, “believed” to be illegal aliens, were charged in federal court with assaulting Border Patrol agents in separate incidents near Imperial Beach. In one, a man from Honduras was spotted with four other Central American men. When an agent tried to arrest him, the others bolted and the man escaped after a struggle with the agent. Eventually, all five were apprehended. In a separate incident, a “suspect” from El Salvador was apprehended near the border and threw a punch at the agent who tried to detain him.  In yet another incident, a Mexican citizen was detained two miles east of the Otay Mesa Port of Entry. As the agent approached, the man pointed a loaded pistol at him and was eventually subdued after a struggle with the help of two more agents who, fortunately, arrived on the scene.

 

Just another day on the border, right? As almost anyone knows who actually lives there and is not in denial, we have a major security problem on that border. The problem isn’t remotely close to being solved because too many liberal immigration advocates in both parties think that the problem is that we’re not allowing more immigrants in and that all of them are very nice people just seeking a better life. Here’s news for them. As you might have gathered from the above, they aren’t all very nice people. In fact, some of them are not nice at all. All it takes is a few rotten apples to make careful vetting of the remaining apples a good idea.

 

President Donald Trump won election partly on a promise to build a wall on the southern border. But a favorite slogan of the liberal immigration crowd is that we should build bridges, not walls. Bridges are a great idea, especially when needed to replace those of ours that are falling apart, but walls have their uses, too. They help keep honest people honest and good neighbors, well, good neighbors. It’s ironic that those elite and affluent folks who oppose a border wall often live in gated communities or secure apartments with elaborate security systems. Affluent families in Latin American countries have no problem with building walls around their compounds and hiring security guards, either.

 

If the border wall that Mr. trump promised was in place by now, that pickup truck would probably not have made it across the border to endanger lives on our streets and highways and those three dead persons would still be alive. If that wall were in place as promised, it would be easier and far safer for Border Patrol agents to patrol the border and do their job. Just ask any Border Patrol agent. There would be far fewer successful attempts to cross illegally.

 

Anyone who thinks that illegal immigration is a victimless crime ought to read more police reports in the border communities. Illegal immigration spawns lucrative criminal activity in drug and human smuggling and in the sex trade. As long as there is a substantial difference in the standard of living between the U.S. and our neighbors to the south, illegal immigration will be a problem but a well-patrolled wall will help to manage it.

 

If you agree, tell your representatives in Congress that you want the wall built now. If the Democrat-controlled House of Representatives refuses to fund it in 2019, perhaps Mr. Trump should solicit contributions from those who want it built. I know he said that Mexico would pay for it, but that’s never going to happen. The cartels would never allow it.

December 6, 2018

 

The Caravan Crisis

A Growing Crisis on the Southern Border—————————

                A commentary 

                By J. F. Kelly, Jr.

                We have a huge crisis on our southern border and it‘s unlikely to end well. It’s a problem largely of our own making. The gangs and drug cartels that control much of Mexico and Central America derive their income from drug sales and trafficking and their best customers are Americanos. It is their insatiable demand  for drugs that keeps the gangs and cartels in business and business is booming.

 

Our so-called war on drugs has been a farce from the start. We celebrated each large seizure of illegal drugs, citing its street value as if we had scored a major victory but each haul was a mere drop in the bucket. There was plenty more where that came from. It reminds me of the enemy body counts we used to publicize during the Vietnam War as “proof” that we were actually winning.

 

The Central American migrants piling up on the southern border, seeking asylum, are fleeing gang violence in their countries. The notorious MS-13 gang in El Salvador was formed largely by Los Angeles gang members who were children of Salvadoran immigrants. When they were deported back to El Salvador, a weak Salvadoran government failed to prevent them from prospering in the drug trade. They expanded their territory into Honduras and elsewhere and their product line into extortion, kidnapping and protection “insurance”. Along with their chief rival gang Barrio 18, they control much of these countries and battle over turf. They recruit members, willing or otherwise, and terrorize the rest of the population. These countries, as I recently wrote, are now among the most violent and dangerous in the world and this is what the asylum seekers are fleeing.

 

They could flee to nearby countries like Mexico, Costa Rica or Panama, but the United States has ever so much more to offer, along with a strong pro-immigration culture and sympathetic advocacy groups. Besides, Mexico is not that much safer than the countries they are fleeing. Local police in several parts of Mexico have been disbanded or disarmed because they have been corrupted by drug cartels. In the northern state of Tamaulipas, for example, almost all local police forces statewide were disbanded, according to an Associated Press report. The same report said that local police in Guerrero and Veracruz were so controlled by cartels that they would participate in kidnappings for them. Low police pay and death threats make them easy prey for gangs.

 

In Acapulco, once a top tourist destination, local police were recently disarmed by the government because of corruption by the cartels and two top police commanders were accused of homicide. The city of 800,000, now turf for warring drug gangs, is being patrolled by the military. Last year, the murder rate in Acapulco was 103 per 100,000 inhabitants, one of the highest rates in the entire world, according to a Wall Street Journal account, citing United Nations and Mexican government sources. Enjoy that vacation in Acapulco and watch your back. Throughout Mexico, over 37,400 people are categorized by the Mexican government as “missing”. Most are presumed dead, victims of the drug-fueled cartel and gang violence that has claimed a quarter of a million lives since 2006. There are over 750 reported kidnappings thus far this year.

 

This is a mere glimpse of the on-going crisis in our own backyard. To describe it as a grave crisis would be a gross understatement. It is a crisis, moreover, largely brought about by decades of misguided U.S. government policies and inaction, including a sham war on drugs which has been a complete and costly failure, an overly-liberal immigration and asylum policy and a disgraceful lack of security on our southern border and ports of entry.

 

This crisis will not be solved by turning our country into a sanctuary for asylum seekers fleeing drug gang violence, abandoning the countries they flee to crime and violence. Nor will it be solved by policies such as releasing from prison so-called non-violent drug offenders, whose drug usage helped support the gangs and cartels. Nor will it be won by more liberal immigration and asylum policies or compassion alone. It will only be solved by actually winning the war on drugs and ending, not merely reducing, illegal immigration and drug smuggling, by whatever it takes including militarizing the border as other countries routinely do. I am not at all sanguine regarding our likelihood of success, given our miserable record to date, but we should at least try.

December 2, 2028