Reflections on the World at Christmas————————
A commentary
By J. F. Kelly, Jr.
The end of the calendar year is a good time for reflection on the events of that year which can help inform our resolutions for the year to come. The year 2018 was not our finest but probably not our worst, either. Trade disputes with China and others, the continuing Mueller inquest, China’s increasingly assertive military and diplomatic posture, the plight of Central American immigrants creating a humanitarian and security crisis on our southern border, a lull in the hostile rhetoric from North Korea, natural disasters increasingly blamed on climate change, the slowing down of the European and Chinese economies and the robust growth of the American economy dominated the news, at least from the serious news sources, as opposed to those stuck on the anti-Trump theme.
Europe seems to be falling apart, demonstrating again the difficulty that high-entitlement, social democracies have in paying for those benefits when they start to run out of other people’s money. The French riots against ever increasing taxes can easily spread to other high spenders like, for example, nearby Italy. After Britain leaves the EU, France and Italy will together comprise about 35% of the EU economy, leaving a heavy burden on Germany, the EU’s largest economy and one of the few living within its means. And Brexit is not going well for the U.K., the world’s fifth largest economy. Whether or not the border between EU member Ireland and British Northern Ireland remains open and essentially invisible could determine whether Catholic-Protestant violence resumes.
The Chinese economy is slowing faster than expected. That along with the trade and tariff disputes, have spooked the U.S. stock market. Still, our economy is robust, business and consumer confidence is high, unemployment has been virtually eliminated and a labor shortage now actually exists, exerting upward pressure on wages which are finally rising. Also in the past year, the United States has not only become energy independent but is now the world’s largest producer and a net exporter of energy, thanks to the removal of restrictions on drilling, pipeline construction and the exporting of crude.
While we have much to be thankful for, we remain bitterly divided politically. We are deeply divided over the proper role and responsibilities of government. We are unrealistic in our expectations of government because too many Americans have little understanding of how it was designed to work and its limitations and counterbalances. We continue to amass a federal debt that we will bequeath to our offspring who will struggle painfully to deal with it. We are now highly dependent on continued robust growth to generate the tax revenue needed to fund the government and are therefore vulnerable to a severe downturn and increase in inflation which would increase the cost of borrowing and the service on refinancing existing debt.
We are also deeply divided on immigration policy, perhaps irreconcilably so. Violence, corruption, drug trafficking and poverty in the Latin American countries, are resulting in immigrants taking desperate measures to seek asylum in the United States. But increased accommodation of these requests will not solve the problems they are fleeing and will only encourage more to come. We cannot abandon those nations to lawlessness while their populations flee nor can we accommodate all who wish to escape these problems by fleeing to the U.S. Eventually the problems must be faced at their source.
This time of year is commonly referred to as the holiday season. In the days before political correctness spread from college campuses and began to dictate what constitutes socially-acceptable speech, it used to be referred to as the Christmas Season. ”Merry Christmas” was the traditional greeting until the political correctness crowd decided that it might offend non-Christians. But as the word indicates, Christmas is a joyous Christian holy day, commemorating the birth of Jesus Christ, whom Christians believe to be the son of God, born as man to redeem the world. It should be a time of peace and good will toward all. It is not intended to demean anyone’s religious beliefs to wish everyone, including non-Christians, a very Merry Christmas. May yours be happy and filled with blessings.
December 27, 2018