One Man’s Thanksgiving

                A reflection

                By J. F. Kelly, Jr.

                The first documented thanksgiving celebrations in the new world were observed by Spanish and French migrants in the 16^th century and later in the Commonwealth of Virginia as early as 1607 in Jamestown. On Dec. 4, 1609, the Berkeley Hundred Colony observed a day of thanksgiving to commemorate the anniversary of their ship’s arrival in America. It was a rather spartan celebration because they didn’t have a whole lot to celebrate except that they, the celebrants, were still alive while so many of their number had not survived the hardships of hunger and disease. They thanked God anyway. Two years later, the colony was wiped out and many of the inhabitants massacred by hostile Native Americans who didn’t take kindly to these immigrants.

                A more congenial welcome was afforded to the colonists further north in Massachusetts in 1621 when Plymouth Colony celebrated its first successful harvest with friendly Native Americans joining in. Four centuries later, we are still celebrating Thanksgiving Day as a day of prayer and thanks for the blessings this bountiful land has given us. The new nation’s first president, George Washington, formally proclaimed Thursday, Nov. 26, 1789 as Thanksgiving Day.

                It’s customary for families and friends to gather on this feast day to give thanks to God for the blessings he has bestowed on America and its fortunate inhabitants but this year the celebrations for most will be muted as a result of the restrictions on gatherings because of the pandemic. It’s also common practice in commentaries like this to remind readers of all they have to be thankful for. But for many who have lost loved ones, jobs, businesses and homes to the pandemic, it may be a struggle to find a lot to be thankful about this year. This, then, should be a time to reach out to them, to try and understand the depth of their pain and to help in any way we can and there are many ways. Meanwhile, rather than presuming to tell others what they should be thankful for, I’ll just tell what I’m thankful for.      

                First of all, I’m thankful to be alive. Our country has existed for 244 years and I have been a proud citizen of it for over a third of its history.  Austen Chamberlain, the British parliamentarian, used the phrase, “May you live in interesting times.” I certainly have. My family and a few of my closest friends joined me recently to celebrate my 90^th birthday. I am thankful for them. My secret to longevity is simple: faith in God, a loving family, true friends and staying busy. Sometimes, perhaps a little help from Jack Daniels. Also, never stop breathing, if you have a choice, no matter what.

                I am thankful for my parents, brothers and sisters and their spouses. My father, the son of Irish immigrants, worked as a bartender to support a family of seven. He worked all of his life since dropping out of school after the sixth grade. My mother was able to be a stay- at- home mom and was always there for us. They never owned a car or their own home and supporting five kids on one salary was a struggle but all five of us turned out well, even me, with eight university degrees among us. I’m thankful for the Sisters of St. Joseph at St. Peter’s Grammar School who actually taught us reading, writing, arithmetic, civics and history. That left very little time for sensitivity training or political indoctrination. We were taught to feel guilty for being sinners but not for the color of our skin or for being privileged in that multi-ethnic, working neighborhood. They also taught us to respect authority and each other and I am thankful for them, even for every crack on the knuckles with a ruler that I deserved.

                I am thankful, too, for three successful and challenging careers and being continuously employed from high school days until the pandemic forced me to quit teaching ship handling, seamanship and navigation in March. I am particularly thankful for the privilege of serving my country as a naval officer for 31 years. I was honored to command three ships and a naval laboratory and there is no greater privilege I know of than that of being entrusted with those beautiful ships and their talented crews. I am thankful for my dear wife of 65 years who gave up her career so I could pursue mine. She kept our family together during my frequent absences at sea.

                I am thankful for being able to express my opinions in essays and commentaries without being censored, grateful to the editors who accept and print them, to the people who read them and particularly to those who take the time to respond to them. (I don’t always love the responses, but thanks anyway.)

                I’m thankful for all the many essential workers and first responders, especially law enforcement and military personnel who face so many risks to keep us safe. Please thank a police officer every chance you get. I’m thankful that vaccines and promising new therapies are on the way and I thank those responsible.  I’m thankful for Coronado, the best hometown in the world’s greatest country. Happy Thanksgiving and stay well.

November 26, 2020

The Biden Presidency————

                A commentary

                By J. F. Kelly, Jr.

                If he hasn’t already done so by the time you read this, President Donald Trump should concede his election loss and stop grousing. It was a tough loss, but that’s politics. He should ponder what his role, if any, in politics will be now. Given his narrow margin of defeat, the strength of his coattails in gaining seats in the House and state legislatures and the likelihood of the GOP retaining control of the Senate, Mr. Trump is not likely to just fade from the scene and build houses for Habitat for Humanity. My guess is that he will continue to lead his party, give speeches, have someone help him write a book, provide unsolicited advice to the Biden Administration, support GOP candidates he favors in the mid-term elections and try to position himself to run again in 2024, pointing to his record of accomplishments, promises kept and the close 2020 election results. Personally, I hope he doesn’t. Another Trump campaign would be more excitement than I could handle at my age and more than he should at his.

                The 2020 election will always have a special place in history because of the Covid-19 pandemic and the problems involved in dealing with massive amounts of mailed ballots resulting in litigation and recounts. In some states, notably Pennsylvania, judges extended deadlines in violation of the Constitution which assigns such authority to state legislatures. A precedent needs to be firmly set to discourage unelected judges from usurping the authority of state legislatures in setting rules for the conduct of elections. Notwithstanding, it should be clear that any minor changes to the vote count that could result would be insufficient to change the outcome. President Trump should concede now for the good of the country and his own legacy.

                National attention now shifts to the Jan. 5^th runoff election for Georgia’s two Senate seats which will determine which party will control the U.S. Senate and whether or not we will have divided government. To flip control of the Senate, Democrats must win both seats, raising their total to 50 which would allow a Vice-president Kamala Harris to break a 50-50 Senate vote. Unless he wishes to see a far-left agenda implemented starting next year, Mr. Trump should avoid saying or doing anything that could harm his party’s chances in these critical elections.

                As for President-elect Joe Biden, since he says that this is a time to heal, he should tread softly, at least initially. It will be difficult enough to deal with GOP resentment over Democrat efforts to undermine the Trump presidency and invalidate the 2016 election results without starting out his term by executive actions that lack bi-partisan support. He has already said that he plans to rejoin the Paris Accords on climate control which is a bad idea. The plan imposes heavy restrictions on the U.S. but China and India, the world’s top polluters, get close to a free pass. China is the world’s leading polluter and although Xi Jinping appears to be taking the problem seriously, it still poses an enormous threat, not just to the global climate but to China’s own economy and the health of its people. When I visited Beijing, Shanghai and other Chinese cities, the air was so foul that our eyes smarted constantly and we could barely see the sun. But industrial dependence on carbon-based fuels takes precedence over climate matters and China is treated as an emerging economy. With but 4% of the world’s population, the U.S. cannot win the climate wars alone or even with the help of Europe without major help from the leading polluters of Asia.

                Secondly, before Mr. Biden seeks on day 1 of his administration to rejoin or renegotiate the nuclear agreement with Iran, he needs to take into account what’s been happening in the Middle East since he’s been out of public office. The peace agreement brokered by the Trump Administration resulting in the establishment of diplomatic relations between Israel, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Sudan with the tacit approval of Saudi Arabia, has dramatically changed things in that region and not to the advantage of Iran, the world’s leading exporter of terrorism and sworn enemy of Israel and the United States. It is not an opportune time to upset the new balance of regional influence by relaxing sanctions against Tehran, re-entering into a flawed deal that gives Iran a clear path to acquiring nuclear weapons and causes Israel and our Arab friends to doubt our support. Iran is increasing its stockpile of low-enriched uranium which now totals 12 times the amount allowed by the agreement according to the UN Atomic Agency. When this uranium is further refined it could be used to produce atomic weapons. Iran is accelerating its production of the low-grade uranium, adding new centrifuges to an underground testing site in violation of the agreement.

                Biden was Vice-president when the deal with Iran was struck and was critical of the Trump Administration’s decision to withdraw, saying at the time that it was a reckless act to quit a deal that was keeping America safe. But safe for how long from a nation whose leaders preach death to Americans and to Jews? Iran has also indicated that while it is amenable to resuming negotiations, it will demand compensation for U.S.-imposed sanctions. That’s not going to happen.

                Rather than starting his administration by taking hasty initial actions that would provoke strong opposition, it might be better to start out by sticking to actions that should receive some bi-partisan support like awarding legal status and a path to citizenship for the Dreamers. Giving some credit to Trump for a few of his accomplishments would be a nice gesture toward healing but I’m not holding my breath.

November 18, 2020

Election Imperfection

What the Voters Were Saying————————–

                A commentary

                By J. F. Kelly, Jr.

                When elections are finally over, it’s common to hear folks say that the people have spoken. Indeed they have, but not in unison. President Donald Trump, in losing, received over 70 million votes, nearly as many as the winner, a measure of how deeply divided the nation is politically. The approximately 70 million whose candidate lost will hopefully accept that defeat gracefully, unlike what happened when Mr. Trump was elected, but they aren’t likely to convert to liberalism and so the nation will likely remain divided along political lines. Joe Biden, the presumed president-elect, promises a return to normalcy and a kinder, gentler approach to governing. But his was not the overwhelming victory that most polls suggested he would achieve and it remains to be seen if his low-key leadership style is persuasive enough to bring a divided nation together as one, big, happy family. Let’s hope that it is, wish him success and rally around the new commander-in-chief.

                Any well-run organization will self-critique after every important evolution and so must our nation. This election was messy as many predicted it would be because of the record number of ballots cast by mail and the vastly-different rules and timelines in effect among the states for counting and processing them. Most of us feared close, contested election results, leading to recounts and extensive litigation and that’s what appears to be happening. Mr. Biden won the White House but the GOP most likely will retain control of the Senate, so divided government will likely continue. This will serve as a check on the ability of the more progressive wing of the Democrat Party to implement its extreme agenda, pack the Supreme Court, approve statehood for the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico and end the filibuster. Mr. Biden thus will be better able to govern as the moderate he claims to be when the Sanders and Warren supporters are not nearby.

                Mr. Biden ran more as the anti-Trump candidate than on his own modest record of accomplishments. The election was close enough that Trump might have won had he somehow been able to act a little more presidential, lay off the stupid tweets and show a little more humility. So, my observation number 1 is that character and manner do matter in a candidate. Accomplishments and promises kept almost got Trump re-elected but character flaws mattered enough to cause him to lose too many female votes to win. Some Trump supporters must be wondering, like My Fair Lady’s Prof. Henry Higgins, “Why can’t a woman be more like a man?”

                Observation number 2 is that while accomplishments may sometimes count even more than character, they may not be enough. Biden won mostly because he wasn’t Trump and he’s usually a nice old gentleman, except for occasional crabby spells, but as a candidate he had little else going for him. He had no coat tails and couldn’t carry the expected number of Democrat congressional candidates to victory with him. He, therefore, has no broad mandate except to govern as a moderate and keep the extreme left wing of the party that helped get him elected at bay. He now will own the job of dealing with the COVID-19 pandemic, continuing to restore the economy and lost jobs, reassuring our allies and adversaries that we are paying attention to the rest of the world, dealing with an increasingly aggressive China, providing health care for all and securing the borders.

                Observation number 3 should be a no-brainer. Voters should pay no attention to polls. The only folks who have a reason to are those in the mainstream media and those trying to raise money for candidates who use poll results for their own purposes. How many times do pollsters have to get it wrong before voters finally get it that most polling processes are flawed? It’s time pollsters looked into another line of work.

                Observation number 4 is that money can’t always buy elections. Hundreds of millions of dollars were wasted by wealthy liberal elites to back congressional campaigns that failed big-time, notably in efforts to defeat GOP heavyweights like Senators Mitch McConnell, Lindsey Graham, Joni Ernst and Susan Collins.

                Observation number 5 is that extensive mail-in balloting will usually produce a mess until 50 state legislatures can agree on standardized rules for handling ballots and stick strictly to them. If they can’t, then Congress should provide guidance. Rules for conducting elections and dealing with ballots are a responsibility of the states but Congress can set guidelines if necessary and it clearly is, especially with regard to deadlines. Some states manage to do it right. Others, not so much. Mail-in ballots should only be provided to those who apply for them. Anyone who still believes that mailed-in ballots are not highly susceptible to mishandling, deliberate or otherwise, probably still believes in the Easter Bunny.

                Observation number 6 is that while democracy is sometimes messy, elections shouldn’t be. “Every vote needs to be counted” is a silly canard. Votes from dead people should not be counted nor should duplicate votes or votes from non-citizens or children or from people too careless or incapable of following simple instructions. We really should worry a little less about foreign interference in our elections and a lot more about our own incompetence in running them.

                Finally, observation number 7 is that foreign affairs doesn’t take a time-out while we try to decide who our commander-in-chief is going to be or while he is busy campaigning all day or while he is a lame duck. You may have noticed that relations with Communist China are deteriorating. China has clamped down further on Hong Kong’s freedoms, is threatening Taiwan and has announced it has authorized its ships to fire on vessels it determines are violating whatever it claims as its territorial waters. Is anyone paying attention? With all that’s going on in the world, it strikes me as remarkable that in a pre-election poll of likely voters regarding their ten principal concerns in voting, foreign relations ranked last. Hopefully, the poll got this wrong, too.

November 10, 2020

The End Game

V

Limping Into the Homestretch————————–

                A commentary

                By J. F. Kelly, Jr.

                The election campaign is, mercifully, almost over and my fervent wish is that the results will be determined swiftly or at least peacefully. My other fervent wish is that office holders would spend less time campaigning and more time governing which is what they were elected to do. First-term presidents and governors spend much of the last year of their terms, or about one quarter of an entire term, campaigning for re-election. It cannot but be a distraction from dealing with the problems they were elected to solve. A single six-year term would ameliorate this problem.

                This has been a particularly nasty campaign with President Donald Trump remaining in character, quick to attack his critics and sometimes members of his own administration without much restraint rather than just focusing on his accomplishments and outlining his plans for a second term. He should be stressing the fact that a Gallup poll has found that over half of registered voters feel, in spite of the pandemic and its effects on the economy, that they are better off now than they were four years ago. He has been most effective when he compares his accomplishments of the past four years with those of former Vice-president Joe Biden after his nearly five decades in government.

                Under Mr. Trump, the economy accelerated from a sluggish recovery under former President Barrack Obama to record high growth until the pandemic hit. Unemployment dropped to an all- time low including among minorities. The percentage of Black Americans living in poverty fell to a record low of 20%. He removed scores of Obama-imposed restrictions on business and industry, and his tax reforms and reductions restored business confidence and encouraged expansion which led to more jobs than there were available workers to fill them. The stock market reached new highs, benefitting retirement accounts and pension plans, contrary to liberals’ claims that it benefitted only the wealthy, again demonstrating John F. Kennedy’s words that a rising tide lifts all boats. He appointed over 200 largely conservative and originalist judges to federal courts including three new Supreme Court associate justices.

                Mr. Trump’s foreign policy accomplishments included extricating the U.S. from the deeply-flawed Paris Accords which put unreasonable demands on the U.S. while essentially giving high polluters like China and India a virtual free pass and the nuclear agreement with Iran which gave the world’s leading exporter of terrorism, whose government preaches death to Americans and the destruction of Israel, a clear path to acquire nuclear weapons after a temporary pause. He imposed additional sanctions on Iran and authorized the removal of Iranian Maj. Gen. Qasem Soleimani and ISSIS leader Abu Bakr al Baghdadi, terrorist leaders responsible for attacks on Americans. He imposed sanctions on Russia for invading Crimea and on China because of unfair trade practices, the theft of intellectual property, attempts to establish sovereignty over most of the South China Sea and its treatment of Hong Kong. 

                Trump did what his predecessors of both parties tried and failed to accomplish; achieve a diplomatic breakthrough in the Middle East. He facilitated the establishment of diplomatic relations between Israel and three more Arab nations: the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Sudan with more likely to follow, promoting peace and ensuring a united front against Iranian dominance in that turbulent region. Perhaps most importantly, he kept the U.S. out of more endless overseas wars.

                The president could have enhanced his prospects, perhaps, by changing his style and tweeting less often but he is who he is and that’s not likely to change. In fact, it’s what got him nominated and elected and expecting him to change is like expecting Joe Biden to stop saying “c’mon man.” It’s been five years since this TV reality star and businessman entered politics and his style has been at least consistent. Character matters, of course, but so do policies and accomplishments. Chief executives, important though they are, come and go but policies can have a long shelf life and in the final analysis may matter more than personalities. People have an inflated view of the role of a chief executive. It’s the many competent people on the team working very long hours that actually do the heavy lifting and get the job done.

                A Biden presidency would drastically change the direction of government. If the GOP retains control of the senate, it could exercise some control over a President Biden’s move to the left of the political spectrum but if both houses of congress go Democrat, there will be little restraint on the left wing of the party and I predict that Joe would just go with the flow while Democrats prepare for a Kamala Harris presidency in 2024 or maybe sooner.

                As Mr. Biden said during the final debate, a Biden Administration would phase out carbon-based fuels and end support for fracking. America’s hard-won gains in energy independence along with hundreds of thousands of good paying jobs would be lost. The Obama Administration’s war on coal had an upside. It led to fracking which allowed us to become the world’s leader in energy production, a net exporter of energy, and it allowed clean-burning natural gas to replace coal, resulting in a 15% reduction in carbon emissions since 2015. A war on all carbon-based fuels would have a huge negative effect on the economy and on the reliability of the power grid. Do we really want to risk that in favor of a risky bet on a green new deal?

                Finally, since character does matter, Mr. Biden has some serious character issues of his own that he needs to clarify, specifically regarding those emails from son Hunter’s laptop which would appear to implicate Hunter in influence-peddling in his overseas financial dealings plus claims by an associate that he knows the former vice president was aware of it. The Bidens deny any wrongdoing and claim a smear campaign along with Russian disinformation but, c’mon man, something smells here and it isn’t Russian disinformation.

November 3, 2020