A commentary
By J.F. Kelly, Jr.
As the world now knows, Vladimir Putin’s badly miscalculated and poorly executed invasion of Ukraine was an attempt to return Ukraine to Moscow’s orbit of control and thus restore some of the power and influence it enjoyed as part of the Union of Soviet Socialistic Republics (USSR). Russia and Ukraine were prime members of that Union and shared much in common. Ukraine was the breadbasket of Europe and, along with Russia, provided much of the world’s grain exports.
With the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia’s fortunes and prestige waned as did its ability to influence world affairs. Mr. Putin seeks to reverse that trend and to restore Russian influence in Eastern Europe, Central Asia and the Middle East. It has formed new alliances with the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and Middle East nations and has claimed territory In Georgia and Ukraine containing large numbers of Russian speakers and sympathizers living in areas adjacent to its western borders such as the Donbas region and Crimea where the Soviet fleet Black Sea Fleet is homeported. Crimea, formerly part of Russia, was ceded by Russia to Ukraine in 1954.
Putin obviously believed that his invading troops would be welcomed as brothers. He was misadvised. Instead, his attempt to quickly occupy the capitol city, Kyiv, was soundly defeated and his poorly led troops proved incompetent. Russia and Ukraine are now engaged in a brutal war of attrition with no end in sight. Many Ukrainian cities lie in ruins and the military and civilian toll on each side is almost beyond calculation. Russian troops and mercenaries have been accused of heinous war crimes in targeting civilians.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and his brave countrymen have won the admiration and support of the free world in fighting to drive the Russian invaders from Ukrainian soil. Western leaders, notably President Joe Biden, have pledged to continue to provide financial and weapons support “for the long haul”. But with no end yet in sight and with restrictions on the use of certain Western-supplied weapons for fear of escalation of the conflict, it’s time to get more specific about how long that long haul may be. Here’s a clue. One veteran of the fighting in Mariupol was quoted by the Wall Street Journal’s Walter Russell Mead as saying, “My grandfather fought the Russians and I think that my children and grandchildren may have to fight them, too”. Here’s another clue. I predict that by the time those grandchildren are old enough to fight them. the western nations will long since have grown weary of supporting this war of attrition. American support for wars of attrition have a limited shelf life, especially if, at the same time, we are trying to deter or win a major war in the Indo-Pacific.
This is not about “the right thing to do”. It’s about what we will be able to do. What we are clearly unable to do Is to rebuild our atrophied defense industry infrastructure in time to provide enough of the weapons and platforms of war to deter or win such a conflict.
Sooner or later, all wars end at the negotiation table. Some end poorly as in Vietnam or Afghanistan but the carnage usually ends, at least for a while. Wouldn’t it be great if we could just advance to the negotiation stage now and avoid some carnage? Both sides will have to concede something. There will be no winner. Russia will need, as a minimum, access to its Black Sea Fleet homeport in Crimea which was part of Russia before they ceded it to Ukraine. They want it back. Russia must leave all other occupied regions in Ukraine. Ukraine will not apply for NATO membership unless it is attacked again.
Will the Russian Federation still be a part of Europe after the war ends? How can it not be? It is the largest country by area in both Europe and Asia and the largest in both size and population in Europe. It is one of the largest energy producers in the world and has abundant mineral wealth. It has a rich cultural heritage. It has the largest nuclear arsenal in the world. It must contribute to the rebuilding of the damage it has caused in Ukraine.
Meanwhile, Europe needs to learn how to take care of its own territorial disputes. Perhaps the United Nations could help. Wasn’t it created to help resolve such disputes? Isn’t it obvious that we are going to have our hands full just keeping China from owning the Indo-Pacific?
June 11, 2023
Commentaries by J. F. Kelly, Jr. 