A commentary
By J. F. Kelly, Jr.
President Joe Biden did his best to sound tough in his State of the Union address but he instead came across as a cranky, old man. His claims of accomplishments are not consistent with reality nor did he acknowledge the failures. China recently announced a 7.2% increase in defense spending, matching last year’s increase. Mr. Biden’s budget for FY 2025 countered with a 1% increase in defense spending which amounts to a net loss when inflation is taken into account. Take that, axis of evil.
Our Navy will continue to shrink, adding only six warships but retiring ten early in addition to nine already at the end of service life. The long awaited and much needed Columbia class ballistic missile submarine (SSBN) lead ship may face a one-year delay due to “supplier issues”, putting the Navy’s most important acquisitions program at risk by potentially creating a gap in replacing the ageing Ohio class SSBNs.
The Columbia class program enhances the sea-based leg of our nuclear “triad”. It has a tight schedule already and now may require extending the Ohio class subs in service. Chief of Naval Operations Lisa Franchetti was quoted by U.S. Naval Institute News (USNI) recently as saying that the program is still meeting its deadlines but the “the margins are eroding”.
Navy Secretary Carlos Del Toro who recently completed a 45-day review of the Navy shipbuilding program, warned that the program was facing major headwinds according to another USNI report. The secretary toured Japanese and South Korea shipyards including Mitsubishi Heavy Industries in Yokohama and Hyundai and Hanwha Oceans shipyards in South Korea and called for more investments by foreign shipbuilders in U.S. shipyards. The question is, why should they do that when Biden’s budget limits the new ship buy to 6? Why should U.S. shipyards invest in expanding while Washington continues to shrink both the military and the merchant fleets?
China already dominates the global shipbuilding industry having merged its two largest shipbuilders to create a state-owned industrial and military giant that dwarfs all rivals. China has thus surpassed our allies, Japan and South Korea as global leaders in shipbuilding enabling it to expand its military and merchant fleets at will. No shortage of investors there, not that they need then, being state-owned and subsidized.
Secretary Del Toro said that U.S shipyards could learn from the Asian shipyards on how to retain their workers. He was quoted as citing examples such as building hospitals, schools, child care centers and bowling alleys which the Asians yards provided for the workers. I have a hunch that U.S. shipyard workers would probably settle for enough ship orders to ensure some job security. Del Toro said that our Navy suppliers here have not invested enough in defense infrastructure (as I’ve said for years), putting resources instead into stock buy-backs and executive compensation.
Defense equipment and platforms of war are very expensive. Investors and firms seeking to expand abhor uncertainty. Before they expand capacity they need some assurance that the demand for their products will still exist by the time they are built. If Mr. Biden or his successor is going to continue to shrink the military and merchant fleet, why should they expand?
Asian shipyards have much less uncertainty to live with. They are in the shipbuilding business to stay and will still be after the next election. Instead of criticizing what’s left of our defense industry, perhaps he should make it clear to his commander-in-chief, the president, that the Navy is too small by far to do the job it is expected to do if circumstances demand it or to deter an enemy from starting a war.
This year, interest on the national debt will exceed Biden’s military budget. We’ve finally reached the point where we are placing a higher priority on entitlements and benefits than on defense. Perhaps we should apply for membership in the European Union. The president’s budget signals to the world that the era of U.S. world leadership is coming to an end. It was a great ride.
March 21, 2024
Commentaries by J. F. Kelly, Jr. 