A commentary
By J. F. Kelly, Jr.
Super Tuesday has come and gone and with it any realistic path to the GOP nomination for Nikki Haley to head her party’s ticket in November. The pity is that polls consistently showed her beating the incumbent president Joe Biden by a greater margin than former president Donald Trump, the presumptive GOP candidate, would. Polls have his margin of victory barely above the margin of error. We know that polls are only snapshots in time, however, and there are eight months to go before the election. Mr. Trump has previously demonstrated that he can always figure out a way to lose.
As expected, Trump cemented his commanding lead over the former South Carolina Governor and his former Ambassador to the United Nations who had the audacity to challenge him, thus earning his wrath. Will Trump be magnanimous in victory and reach out to her? He should because Republicans need a female on the ticket to help counter the female vote over the abortion issue. A recent Wall Street Journal poll shows Biden leading Trump among women under 30 by 32 percentage points and among women of all ages with college degrees by 22 points. A ticket headed by Nikki Haley, on the other hand, would beat Biden by about 10 points, according to the polls.
As things now stand, voters will get the same flawed choices for the most powerful elected office in the world. They might reasonably ask why the parties can’t do better than this. Surely, there are transformational leaders out there without baggage like that which these two candidates carry who would make great presidents. But ask yourself if you would put yourself and your family through what candidates and office holders are subjected to these days.
Mr. Trump likely will have the nomination wrapped up by the end of March. This was hardly even a contest. We didn’t hear either candidate debate. We hardly heard from Biden at all. Trump will continue to attend rallies surrounded by adoring fans. We will probably continue to not hear much from Biden. His access to a microphone will be carefully managed by his handlers. This is Biden’s fifth campaign for the presidency or vice-presidency. It’s Trump’s third run for the presidency. We already know most of what we need to know about both candidates. Think of the millions wasted on campaign expenses. It’s shaping up to be a long, boring summer. Thank Heaven for baseball. The people deserve better choices.
They also deserve fewer elections. Since neither Biden nor Trump, if elected in November, can run again, they will be lame ducks from day 1. The campaign to replace them in 2028 will begin very early. First term Incumbents spend too much time campaigning for re-election and not enough doing what they were elected to do. The Mexican model of a single, six-year term is far more efficient.
Both candidates, in taking credit for their victories, called for unity. Unity, however, is not Mr. Trump’s strong suit. He said previously that any of Haley’s supporters who have contributed financially to her campaign would not be welcome in the MAGA movement. He missed a golden opportunity to be gracious in victory by reaching out to her and her supporters. Biden did. Trump will need them to win. He should seriously consider her as his running mate.
Haley also missed the same opportunity to show unity by offering her support to Mr. Trump and remaining open to any key role in his administration including vice-president. Unfortunately, she said that she would not and Trump said that he wouldn’t ask her. Big mistake. Since Trump can’t run again and if Haley aspires to run in 2028 the best preparation might be four years as his vice-president with significant responsibilities including counseling Trump against the overreach he is prone to (although that role didn’t do much for Mike Pence’s presidential aspirations). In the early years of our nation, the top two vote getters in presidential elections, regardless of party, served as president and vice-president, respectively. The VP, being elected, could not be fired by the president and replaced by someone of his own party.
When Donald Trump laments that he envies dictators he gets accused of admiring them. But envy is not the same as admiration. He says he would be a dictator only on day one. But so was Biden in terminating many of Trump’s initiatives, notably regarding border security. Trump envies their power to get things done. China, for instance, recently announced that it plans to increase military spending by 7.2% this year, matching last year’s increase. This continues two decades of continuing increases in defense spending, resulting in among other things the largest navy in the world and a huge defense infrastructure enabling it to grow even larger. This despite an economy that is stalling, a real estate market on the verge of collapse and a population that is ageing.
Whatever Xi Jinping wants, he gets. Can you imagine a U.S. president of either party asking for a 7.2% increase in defense spending? Investors in the defense industry in China, unlike ours, know that this commitment is not just good until the next administration takes over. They can actually take it to the bank and invest in expansion for the long term with confidence. Capitalism has many advantages but flexibility in defense spending is not one of them. That’s why we’ll probably never catch up with China as a maritime power unless its economy collapses like the Soviet Union’s did or Xi falls from favor. Don’t hold your breath.
March 26, 2024
Commentaries by J. F. Kelly, Jr. 